MNF NFL Picks: Go 'Under' 47 With Luck Struggling for Indianapolis

Jason Lake

Thursday, October 29, 2015 10:20 PM GMT

The Carolina Panthers are finally getting some respect, but people are still pounding the OVER on the NFL odds board for Monday's game against the Indianapolis Colts.

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Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 28: 22-16-1 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-26 Total
Slowly, almost begrudgingly, people are coming around to the Carolina Panthers. Nobody wanted to give them much respect for beating the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But a pair of victories against the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles has bettors thinking twice. Carolina has moved all the way up to No. 7 overall on the DVOA charts, with the sixth-best defense in the league. Dap has been earned.

Maybe not enough dap. With Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts coming to Charlotte Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), people are happily adding the OVER to their Week 8 NFL picks. Our first consensus reports showed 60 percent support for the OVER on the total of 46.5 points, dipping to 54 percent at press time. That's despite a 55-percent chance of rain over Bank of America Stadium at kick-off.

 

Replace Your Divots
That's also despite the grass at the stadium getting worse and worse with every game. The turf was getting chewed up real good in last week's 27-16 win (UNDER 46) against the Eagles. Earlier this month, Sports Illustrated ranked Charlotte's field fifth overall in the NFL, praising the Voyager Bermuda grass for its durability. It's better than playing on that concrete that passes as artificial turf, but the Bank does need re-seeding and maintenance on a regular basis.

Blame the weather – and blame Carolina's No. 1-ranked rush offense. Between RB Jonathan Stewart (4.1 yards per carry) and QB Cam Newton (4.5 yards per carry), that sod is getting churned up on a regular basis. By the way, each of the last five home regular-season games in Charlotte went UNDER last year, starting in Week 8. Just sayin'.

 

Journey to the Center
The return of Luck to the Indianapolis Colts lineup appears to be driving the market toward the OVER. But as much as the betting public loves them some Luck, the Indianapolis offense has never been among the most efficient in the league since his arrival. Even with the suspect Colts defense, the UNDER went 25-23 during Luck's first three seasons in the NFL. This year, Luck has made five starts, and the UNDER is 3-2 thus far.

Thanks to the public's fascination with Luck, the Panthers are looking at the highest total they've seen this year on the NFL odds board. And they'll have even more trouble breaching that total after center Ryan Kalil sprained his ankle in last week's win over the Eagles. Kalil is still expected to start on Monday despite missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He's already not the Pro Bowler he used to be; now Kalil is going into this game at less than 100 percent. Watch out for that turf, Ryan.

NFL Picks: Take UNDER 47 (–105) at Pinnacle

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