MNF Giants vs. Dolphins NFL Picks: Our Expert's Final Thoughts

Kevin Stott

Monday, December 14, 2015 12:07 PM GMT

What are the best approaches from the basic and popular Point Spread (ATS), Moneyline (M/L) & Totals for this primetime affair between the Giants & the Dolphins? Let's get some NFL picks for you!

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Free NFL Picks: Giants -122; Giants -1
Best Odds Offered By Pinnacle

The New York Giants head south down the Atlantic Coast to Sun Life Stadium in sunny Miami Gardens, Florida on Monday night to face Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller and the host Miami Dolphins in an interconference game which still matters to the visitors from The Big Apple. With a Win here, QB Eli Manning and the 5-7 visiting G-Men can tie the 6-7 Eagles and Redskins atop the anemic NFC East, so, what’s the best approach and logical picks here under the primetime spotlights on Monday Night Football? Let’s dissect this frog before it starts to stink.

 

Why Back the New York Giants at -1½ and Buy the ½ Point Down to -1?
Because if the Giants are going to win, they’re going to have to win by at least 1 point, so why not pay the small premium and by the ½ point—after seeking out the current marketplace low of of 1½ (MGM Mirage, Wynn Las Vegas, The Greek, BetHorizon)—although there is still a single (Giants minus) 1 available now (Sunday afternoon) at Sportbet.com—and as mentioned, finding the lowest available Money Line (early Monday) seems wise as the late public money likely will be on the Giants. It’s simple. This Point Spread could very well hit 3 and getting it where you’re just picking the winner (Giants) at the lowest price—for now Marathon at -125—is getting ahead of a further potential ½- to 1½-point move up New York’s way as maybe 20-25% of the betting public will want to back Miami (4-8 ATS) and it likely won’t cross that Key NFL Number of 3.

 

***Miami Dolphins & New York Giants Series Trends & History***

 

Why the Giants of the NFC Conference on the Money Line? (In List Form, Mr. Grinch)
The Giants -127 (Pinnacle) are worth a moderate play on the Money Line on Monday Night Football for some seemingly logical reasons:

1) The Dolphins are just 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU at Home at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens with victories against the Texans, 44-26—a game in which they led 41-0 at Halftime—and the Ravens, 15-13 last weekend in Week 13. WR Jarvis Landry and the Fish are just 23-30 SU the L43 games over the past 6+ seasons and really don’t have much of a Home-field Advantage in this league, whereas almost all other NFL teams outside of the likely-moving San Diego Chargers distinctly do. And that matters. Miami’s last winning Record at Home came all the way back in 2008 when the Dolphins went 5-3. The Fish have had 4-4 SU Records here at Home 5 of the L6 seasons with the one exception coming in 2009 when they went a Season Ticket-canceling 1-7 under one-year Head Coach Cam Cameron.

2) The Giants are 5-1 in its L6 SU against Miami, winning by an average of 6.3 ppg and although New York has only played the Fish twice in the Sunshine State (1993 and 1996), much like 2000 Republican US Presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, the Giants do surprisingly well in Miami-Dade County (2-0).

3) New York (5-7) and Manning the Junior is actually still in their divisional race with that sub-.500 mark in the Charlie Brown-inspired NFC East and can tie the Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) and Washington Redskins (6-7) with a Win over Miami here and actually have a better team, but have had some sloppy Loses, some sloppy Defensive play at times and some Injuries outside of the Offseason Fireworks one to DE Jason Pierre-Paul. 

4) The G-Men (80/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) have a positive Point Differential (307 PF-296 PA) at +11 while Miami has a negative Point Differential (240 PF-300 PA) at -60 in a season when may believed the Dolphins could make a run at an AFC East title and at worst an AFC Wild Card berth. Sorry, Charlie.

5) The Giants have better starting QB Eli Manning (3,318 yards)—nursing a bad Ankle—and although electric WR Victor Cruz is out for the season, better Skill players like speedy WR Odell Beckham Jr. (1,154 yards), WR Rueben Randle (533 yards, 12.7 ypc, 4 TDs), RB Rashad Jennings (431 yards) and the underrated duo of RB Shane Vereen (42 receptions, 533 yards, 3 TDs; 216 Rushing yards) and WR Dwayne Harris (28 receptions, 240 yards, 12.1 ypc. 4 TDs), although the aforementioned Landry (823 yards), RB Lamar Miller (680 yards), TE Jordan Cameron and Rookie (Louisville) WR DeVante Parker actually do give Miami some of the best production guys it’s had in years and no doubt this has helped Miami Starting QB Ryan Tannehill (3,079 yards) and his development, but 240 points heading into Week 14 ain’t so great (20 ppg, #25 in NFL). Still Watch Rueben Randle (14/1 First TD Scorer, Ladbrokes), Vereen and Harris. And Beckham (10 TDs) of course. He’ll be that blur with the number 85 on your TV.

6) The best approach with everything out there and backing the Giants is at Offshore operator Pinnacle on the Money Line at -127, as if you lay the minimum -1 still out there in one spot or make a -1 at one of the four showing -1½, it will still cost at least -120 and you put yourself in a situation where if the Giants win by 1 point, you Push your bet. The 7-cent difference (now) between taking that -127 on the M/L or the -1 at -120 (if you can find or make it) is best evaporated before Kickoff as the Stress of watching the game will be minimized plus you’ve created a way to win and avoid a Push should New York somehow win by a point. But if you can only make a -1, that will be ahead of the market which has many -2½’s in Europe, with 2’s and 1½’s more common, though rare, Offshore and here in Las Vegas, The money and movement in this game—in terms of a side—has been all Giants and we could see -3 by Kickoff.

 

Thoughts On The Total
Lowest Total in Market: 46½
Consensus Total in Market: 46½s and 47s
Highest Total in Market: 47

Totals Trends, Thoughts
New York Overs are 7-5 this season while Miami Totals on the year are 6-6 heading in here but many of the both Weird and Relevant Trends alike support backing the Under on the soft playing surface (Grass) of Sun Life Stadium in Miami where it will almost be 80 warm fahrenheit degrees in December, denizens of North America. The Under is 11-3 the L14 Dolphins Week 14 games; the Under is 6-2 ATS the L8 Giants games in December; and, the Under is 13-5 ATS the L18 Giants games played on Grass, a seemingly important Trend clicking at 72.2%. And it seems all 7 games in this series have gone Under with an average of just 29.9 ppg being scored in the 7 lifetime meetings between these two historic NFL franchises that gave us Mercury Morris and “The Pillsbury Throwboy,” Jared Lorenzen. Best recognize.

 

Monday Night Football Trends & How Could This Week 14 Inter-Conference Game Play Out?
As you can see in the list above when these two clubs last met, Dolphins lost 20-17 at MetLife Stadium in 2011 but covered ATS as big 9½-point underdogs while the last meeting here in South Florida was way back in 1996—when William Jefferson Clinton was US President and we all pretended to care about the US Mint’s issuing of State Quarters—at Pro Player Stadium (also in Miami Gardens)—and saw the G-Men winning outright, 17-7 and covering the Point Spread as 7-point underdogs. The Monday Night Football Trends? New York NFC is a pathetic 5-10 ATS as a Home Favorite while the Dolphins are 9-5 ATS as Home Underdogs under the Monday night primetime spotlights and the Over in Giants MNF Away games is 18-16 while the Over is 24-16 in Dolphins Home games on Mondays. Some good ones here: Miami 0-8 ATS its L8 games in December, the Dolphins 1-4 ATS at Home this season and just 1-7 ATS their L8 Home games but the Giants have L3.

So numbers, Trends and emotions aside, how could this play out on the gridiron? Desperation and reality should drive the visiting Giants to be scared straight to find a way to win this through its five key skill guys in Beckham, Harris, Randle, Jennings and Vereen. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year odds released late Spring here in Sin City had the Dolphins open as healthy 3½-point favorites for this primetime Monday night game so you can see both by that number, the movement in the Point Spread here as well as the Dolphins dismal 1-7 ATS mark at Home over the L8 and Miami’s 0-8 ATS record in December the Fish pack it up in mid-November and have little discernable Homefield advantage, making that token 3 oddsmakers and pundits chirp almost moot in this particular case, especially in a must-win situation for one team against another drawing dead. Big Blue baby. Fear matters.

 

NFL Odds Overview
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Tuesday [01:30] (ESPN, WatchESPN, Directv 206 (US), Sky Sports 1/HD (UK), 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST): Eli Manning and the New York Giants (5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) head to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida (Weather Forecast: Mostly Cloudy, 79°, Winds S 5 to 10 mph, 73% Humidity) on Monday night to face the host Miami Dolphins (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS) in a big inter-conference game for the visitors. Current Odds have the Giants in a 1- (Sportbet) to 2½-point (+110, Dolphins +2½ -150, William Hill) range as the favorites with the The Total (Points) in this game now ranges from 46½ to 47 while in the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Giants (low) is -125 (Marathon) with the host Dolphins priced at +115 on the takeback (Pinnacle). The New York Giants Total Team Points is at 24½ (Ladbrokes) while the Miami Dolphins Total Team Points is at 22 (Ladbrokes).

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: New York Giants 24 Miami Dolphins 20
FREE MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICKS: Giants Money Line -122 (Marathon), Giants -1 -122 (Sportbet.com)
FREE MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PROPS BETS PICK: Rueben Randle +200 Anytime TD Scorer (Ladbrokes)