NFL Week 12 Mixing up your picks
The NFL Odds are heating up as we hit the home stretch of the season, and once more I am back with one of my two-team parlays. In a normal 2-team parlay with -110 odds, the best you can do is +260 on a win. However by using slight underdogs in a money line parlay, we can increase our value by almost 40% without increasing risk by half that much.
Chicago travels into St. Louis after coming back to beat the Ravens at home in Week 11. Not only did that win keep their playoff chances alive in the division, but also I think it gave the team some newfound confidence. At only +105 in the money line NFL Odds, Chicago is going to be the first leg of my parlay. They have routinely beaten the Rams in the past, and despite the horrendous defensive play due to injury, their offense hasn’t missed a beat.
This is also without Jay Cutler, who has once again been ruled out. Josh McCown will lead the Bears once again, and I have no doubt that he can move the ball on the Rams. I am putting the Rams’ big win over the Colts more on Indianapolis than I am the Rams. Sure they played much better defense in that game, but a long two weeks have passed since then, and if this game comes down to a battle between the Bears’ offense and the Rams’ defense I’ll still take the slight risk of taking the value with Chicago.
If you thought that last pick was risky, then you might want to stop reading right now, because I am taking the +125 with the Patriots and adding it to my parlay. Am I crazy? Probably. However I am also a value-shark, and this one has it. The Patriots had a crappy start to the season. They were injured, Tom Brady looked like he was one pick six away from retirement, and they weren’t the Patriots.
However, even after that controversial loss on the road in Carolina, the Panthers don’t get any credit for how they played in that game still. Brady and the Patriots should have won the game, and they know it. New England played well, going got almost 400 yards of offense on what could be the best defense in the NFL. However, the only way for them to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that loss is to beat Peyton Manning on a short week.
It will be difficult, but neither Wes Welker or Julius Thomas practiced today, and even though there is no word yet on their statuses, it is concerning for Denver. The Patriots are finally healthy, and for once in this matchup, they have the better defense. The Patriots have not lost in six straight home games, and at the price you can get them at now, they are worth a shot, especially if we are betting the Bears on the road in St. Louis. +125 is a little too much money to be spotting the Patriots at home, especially at this point in the season when they seem to have the kinks and injuries worked out. For my NFL picks, I’m adding Brady and the Patriots as well.