Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Total Odds, Predictions & NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 6, 2015 1:48 PM GMT

Buffalo hosts the AFC East Week 9 Regular Season showdown between the Bills & Dolphins in what recent Final Scores &  Totals results reveals to be an under situation for NFL picks.

What: NFL Week 9—Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, New York
When: Sunday, November 8, 2015
Weather: Mainly Sunny, 49°, Winds W 10 mph, 59% Relative Humidity
Current Point Spread Range: Buffalo Bills -2½ (Island Casino) to -3 (Almost everywhere)
Current High Total in Marketplace: 44½ (MGM Mirage, Wynn Las Vegas)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 44
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 44 (Most places Wednesday afternoon)
Alternate Total: Under 44½ -125, Over 44½ +105 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 45½ -142, Over 45½ +137 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 46 -150, Over 46 +1102 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 46½ -155, Over 46½ +114 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Miami Dolphins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) head north to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo to face the host Bills (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) on Sunday afternoon in a massive AFC East meeting for both teams and what ultimately could be a really tough and possibly season-ending Loss for the losers here. The Total here currently sits in a tight ½-point range from 44 to 44½ (MGM Mirage, Wynn Las Vegas) and it hasn’t moved much since opening two days ago. The big Injury news in this game is the availability of Bills starting QB Tyrod Taylor, and the Virginia Tech product is listed as Probable today (Wednesday) meaning he’s the guy Buffalo Head Coach Rex Ryan will be counting on here. Reports also indicate teammates OT Seantrel Henderson, G John Miller and WR Sammy Watkins could all be back for this game but the availability of WR Percy Harvin at any point the remainder of this Regular season for the Bills is murky. Buffalo will come into this game well-rested (13 Days) off their Bye week after suffering a tough Loss to the Jaguars in London, 34-31 in Week 7 while the Dolphins were clobbered 36-7 by the Super Bowl champion Patriots in New England last Thursday night in Week 8 (Total: 51, Under).

Here are the L11 Final Scores in this AFC series, including this year’s result which snapped an unbeaten 5-0-1 run for the Under.

 

Final Scores in the Last 11 Meetings in Buffalo Bills-Miami Dolphins Series
2015—Bills 41 @ Dolphins 14 Total: 43½ Result: Over (by 1½ point)
2014—@ Dolphins 22 Bills 9 Total: 40½ Result: Under
2014—@ Bills 29 Dolphins 10 Total: 43 Result: Under
2013—@ Bills 19 Dolphins 0 Total: 41½ Result: Under
2013—Bills 23 @ Dolphins 21 Total: 44 Result: Push
2012—Bills 24 @ Dolphins 10 Total: 43 Result: Under
2012—@ Bills 19 Dolphins 14 Total: 46 Result: Under
2011—Dolphins 30 @ Bills 23 Total: 43 Result: Over
2011—@Dolphins 35 Bills 8 Total: 44 Result: Under
2010—Bills 17 @ Dolphins 14 Total: 40 Result: Under
2010—Dolphins 15 @ Bills 10 Total: 39 Result: Under

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see above, the Under is a powerful 8-2-1 ATS over the L11 meetings, including an Over—by 1½ points—in this year’s meeting in Week 3 at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens (Bills 41-14). When these two met in this game last season in Buffalo, the Bills rolled to a 29-10 victory in Week 2 as modest 1½-point favorites while in the game in Miami Gardens last season, the Fish won (and covered) 22-9 as 3½-point chalks. Because of some Geographical realities (Miami is Hot and Buffalo is Cold), the Home teams usually fare really well both SU and ATS in this series. The Bills are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Miami in this series including a 41-14 humbling in Miami Gardens in Week 2 earlier this season. More general Trend-wise, the Under is 15-5 ATS in the L20 Miami games against its own AFC East division and the Under is 7-2 ATS in the L9 games here at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. Also the Under is 9-3 ATS the L10 Buffalo games on Turf (Ralph Wilson Stadium). So, much Under-ness. Even though the upstate New York weather shouldn’t be a big factor for the warm-weather Dolphins, the forecast High Temperature of 49° will be enough to make Miami clam up. The Dolphins have scored just 10 and 0 Points in their L2 trips here, and with the Bills needing the Win so bad and both Defenses average, this should be tight, low-scoring struggle just to try to win the game by both sides with FGs and FG Attempts probably frequent and the Home site likely mattering in the ultimate (side) outcome. Backing the strong Under Trends here, including the 4-0-1 ATS Under the L5 here in Buffalo is the call.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Bills 23 Dolphins 17

NFL WEEK 9 TOTALS PICK: Under 44½ -125 (Bet365)

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