Meaningful Line Moves That Create Value For Your NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 9, 2015 9:07 PM GMT

We spot NFL line moves that are meaningful and are already impacting on how NFL betting trends are developing. Importantly, these give an indication of where value NFL picks are to be had.

Week 14 Opening NFL Betting Lines
After a sensational Sunday around the NFL, marking week 13 of the season, odds makers went to press with opening NFL betting lines. As table 1 indicates, there are several meaningful line movements to spot on your NFL picks.

 

Table 1: Week 14 NFL Betting Odds and Early Picks

 

Reverse Line Moves and Meaningful Moves That Matter
As table 1 indicates, there are several matchups that reveal intriguing NFL line moves, from the Bills moving from -1 in advanced lines (Westgate last week) to +2.5 at the close of week 13 and then back up to -1.5 in current betting markets according to Pinnacle. Similar hopping around on the NFL odds board is demonstrated in the Lions vs. Rams game going from STL -2 to PK and then to STL -1.

Indeed, the latter represents reverse line movements as consensus betting reveals Lions are raking in most of the tickets right now. Reverse line moves which are movements that contradict public consensus betting trends can also be seen on the NFL odds board in the Cowboys vs. Packers, moving from -9 to -7.5 despite gaining 60.79% of the public bets. As well, the Patriots vs. Texans game, which has the Patriots on a descending NFL line despite lopsided consensus betting numbers.

How NFL bettors approach week 14’s slate therefore is one of the main concerns in this space. With the fence jumping on the NFL odds board, the action coming down the wire and the contrarian values displayed on the NFL odds board, finding value NFL picks is a challenge.

We’re tackling that challenge nonetheless by serving up NFL picks that go against the public. In short: where should NFL bettors fade the public?

 

Spread To Bet Against Public Jets -7.5
Sure, the NY Jets are riding high in the playoff hunt behind a 7-5 SU mark, but they are only 6-5 ATS this season with a 3.0-point margin of victory on average and a plus 1.6-point differential against the spread. By those stats, it’s somewhat surprising to see them open as the whopping 8-point favorites on the NFL odds board when they host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Clearly, they aren’t blowing competition off the field with any regularity.

The NFL betting line has more to do with the perception of the Titans rather than the unpredictability of the Jets. The Titans are 3-9 SU, which is hardly a ringing endorsement for the straight up upset on the road. Nor for that matter is their 4-7 ATS record at first glance a commendation for the cover. However, the Titans boast a 4.2-point margin of defeat on average and a negative 2.2-point differential against the spread. Seven of their 12 games have been decided by six points or less (win or lose), five of which were decided by three points or less.

Clearly, the public appears to homing in on these discrepancies and pounding the Titans on their NFL picks as consensus betting reveals the Titans are taking in 57.48% of the tickets. The idea being: it’s way too many points to be laying with the Jets. Or is it? Upon closer inspection, we discover that the 42.52% of tickets recorded on the Jets actually amount to a whopping 60.27% of the money staked on this game. If that’s not an indication of sharp money on the Jets in early NFL betting markets, then what is?

NFL Picks: Jets -7.5 (+111) Pinnacle

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Spread to Fade Public: Chiefs -10
Typically, double-digit spreads make us nervous. Yet, we’re pouncing on this game despite the double barrel. Why? Several reasons. To begin with, consensus betting polls at SBR reveal an overwhelming number of tickets coming down the wire on the Chargers – 60.33% to be exact. This lopsided public betting on the Chargers comes across rather surprising. The Chargers are coming off debilitating 17-3 loss to the Broncos in week 13 at home, failing to come through as the mere 5.5-point home underdogs at closing doors.

Overall, this season, the Chargers have been a complete and utter disappointment. They are 3-9 SU overall, with a 2-5 SU mark at home and a 1-4 SU mark on the road. By the stats, they are 4-8 ATS with a 6.4-point margin of defeat on average and a negative 5.1-point differential against the spread. In the last three games that they’ve failed to cover they are missing the spread on average by 13.33 points. Indeed, it would seem sharp bettors are in agreement with us here. This is nowhere more so evinced than in consensus betting polls that reveal most of the actual money staked on this game is on the Chiefs rather than the Chargers. Of the paltry 39.67% of tickets recorded on this game on the Chiefs, the actual money represents almost 60% of the money risked on the game. That’s a good sign for savvy NFL bettors to jump on the sharp bandwagon and fade the public on their NFL picks. Take the Chiefs as the overwhelming home faves.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -10 (-105) The Greek

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