Tom Brady has a winning record against Peyton Manning, but the New England Patriots are too banged up to cover the point spread against the Denver Broncos Sunday.
Denver has gone 4-0 SUATS since its bye week, which can’t be ignored when making your Week 9 NFL betting picks ATS, as it hits the road after picking up a 35-21 victory over the San Diego Chargers as nine-point home favorites last Thursday.
The Broncos are being led offensively by quarterback Peyton Manning, who has thrown at least one touchdown in 46 consecutive regular-season games to represent the fourth-longest such streak in league history.
Over the last two-plus seasons, the team is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, with the OVER going 11-3 in that situation.
New England was basically written off after splitting its first four games of the 2014 campaign, but quarterback Tom Brady posted a 129.1 passer rating in October—leading directly to a 4-0 SU record over that span.
The Patriots have won 41 straight regular-season home games against AFC opponents with Brady under center, which is important to consider when looking over the NFL odds, as he’s also covered the number in seven of eight games as a home underdog in this career.
It’s important to point to point that the squad is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 since the start of the 2012 campaign.
Stopping the Run
The Broncos rank first in the league in run defense having allowed opponents to rush for just 72.4 yards per game—a key statistic to handicap in this matchup due to the Patriots gaining 180 yards on the ground in last year’s regular season and playoff meetings.
Denver’s ability to stop the run effectively has allowed linebacker Von Miller and defensive end DeMarcus Ware to concentrate on getting after the quarterback, with the duo combining for 16 sacks.
I believe it’s significant that there’s been no line movement in the market with the Patriots being sent out as three-point underdogs at Gillette Stadium, but most sports bettors are expecting their recent injuries to catch up with them.
New England will really miss defensive end Chandler Jones in facing off against Manning, as he’s the main pass rushing threat for the stop unit, especially with top linebacker Jerod Mayo being out for the year.
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Broncos as one of their main football picks this weekend, as the favorite has covered the number in the last five games in this series.
Keep an eye on the weather forecasts, as gusty winds of 20-30 mph during the daytime hours could carry over into this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff, which would lower my expectations of Denver winning this game.
Free NFL Pick: Denver Broncos -3 at Pinnacle Sports