Make The Road Dog Your NFL Pick for Giants vs. Rams

Nikki Adams

Friday, December 19, 2014 12:25 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 19, 2014 12:25 PM UTC

Giants and Rams collide in a week 16 showdown with nothing on the line save for pride. Still, NFL purists won't let an opportunity to capitalise on profit angles to slip through their fingers. Join us as we breakdown this game and deliver our betting verdict.

NY Giants (5-9 SU, 2-5 away)
NY Giants are riding a two-game winning streak at the expense of the Titans and Redskins ahead of week 16 NFL betting, and they'll be looking to extend this newfangled winning form to three in a row when they visit the Rams in St. Louis.

Week 13's narrow 25-24 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars officially eliminated the Giants from playoff contention, although given their form on the season only the wildly optimistic held on to that pipedream. Curiously, once the weight of expectation was lifted, the Giants seemed to relax into form. The following week they beat the Titans convincingly in a 36-7 road win. Then they went on to beat the Redskins 24-13 at home.

St. Louis Rams (6-8 SU, 3-4 home)
St. Louis' bench has been plagued with injuries since the start of the season, hence their losing 6-8 SU record. Still, despite their trials and tribulations, they've deposited eyebrow raising wins, from orchestrating major upsets over the Niners, Seahawks and Broncos to steamrolling the Raiders and Redskins 76-0 combined. That's quite the impressive list of results that simply can't be overlooked.

Most recently, the Rams are after a 12-6 loss to the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football betting. Defense had another stellar turnout, holding Arizona to just 274 yards of total offense and denying Drew Stanton any touchdown passes. Unfortunately, their offense came up short against a very good Cardinals defense and could only get to field goals on the scoreboard.  

NFL Betting Verdict: Giants +6.5 vs. Rams -6.5
Given the inconsistencies of both teams and their overall season's NFL odds a 6.5-point spread seems a little bit too high on both sides of the coin, don't you think? Giants are 6-8 ATS with a 1.6-point margin of defeat on the season and the St. Louis Rams are 7-7 ATS on the season with a 0.4-point margin of defeat. Taking a more specific cross-section: Giants are 2-5 ATS on the road with a 2.9-point margin of defeat and the Rams are 3-4 ATS at home with a 2.6-point margin of defeat.

Since snapping the horrendous seven-game losing streak that all but eliminated the NY Giants from playoff contention, they've looked better. And won two games as a result. There's an argument to be had about the soft opposition, prompting the question whether the  Giants were really better in those games or only as good as their opponents were bad.

Undoubtedly, the Titans and Redskins can't be considered overwhelming obstacles given their lacklustre seasons, but to chalk this recent turnaround on form to that aspect alone is too simple. It doesn't explain why the Giants lost to the Jaguars after gaining the considerable 21-0 lead. More likely than not the Giants just buckled under the mounting pressure as their losing streak gained momentum. The moment the book closed on their season, they've played freer, better football. Whether this newfangled form will spill forth into their upcoming game remains to be seen. Nobody likes playing the Rams. They may be out of the playoffs as well with a 6-8 SU record but they are a plucky, gutsy bunch. Their defense can cause Eli Manning a lot of headaches. Where the Giants have the edge over the Rams is on offense; if Eli Manning gets going, he can put up the points. Shaun Hill and the Rams O-line aren't up to snuff with a 26th ranked passing offense and 21st ranked rushing offense.

So which side of the coin presents the value NFL pick? For our money, 6.5-points is a lot of points to be giving the Rams. So take the Giants as the 6.5-point road underdogs to cover.

Free NFL Picks: Giants +6.5

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