Make Bills Your NFL Pick to Cover +7 vs. Patriots as Injuries Stack Up

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 4:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015 4:26 PM UTC

One week after dropping the cash as big road faves, the New England Patriots are big home faves on the NFL odds board for Monday's game against the Buffalo Bills.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 17: 39-34-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 22-29 Total

Making NFL picks can be very simple sometimes. There isn't much degree of difficulty when it comes to this week's very special episode of Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN); the New England Patriots are laying seven points at home to the Buffalo Bills, and sure enough, 100 percent of first responders were on the Bills, according to our early consensus reports.

Of course they were. The Patriots (9-0 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) needed all their moxie to beat the New York Giants 27-26 last week as 7-point road faves. Injuries have left their offense highly vulnerable, while the Bills (5-4 SU and ATS) have just gotten some of their key players back in the lineup. Why would you make any other choice but Buffalo in this situation?

Hip to Be Square
Lots of people would, actually. Since that first wave of Bills support, New England has already turned the tables, pulling in just over 50 percent of bettors at press time with nearly 58 percent of the action thus far. People love the Patriots, what can we say. The fact that they're still undefeated will make casual fans overlook their flaws – as if they were really paying attention to the offensive line in the first place.

It is a bit surprising to see so many people on New England this early in the week, though. Maybe it's just another sign that the marketplace is turning square. With so many new bettors coming in with so much money, we'll have to be ever more careful when we're reading the consensus reports and looking for betting patterns. Focusing on the earliest action at the open will help divine what the sharps have in mind for each game.


Julie, Don't Go
It's difficult to argue about taking the Bills. They have so many things going for them as one of the biggest underdogs on the Week 11 NFL odds board; not only is the injury situation very much in their favor, they've also got the old “divisional dogs of seven or more” betting trend working for them. In Week 7, the New York Jets used this trend to get paid (or earn a push, depending on when you bought in) when they lost 30-23 to the Patriots.

Things have gone a bit askew for the Patriots since then. They lost yet another important offensive player when leading WR Julian Edelman (61 catches, seven TDs) went down with a Jones fracture; this is the same injury that forced Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant to miss six weeks. Wide receivers are somewhat more replaceable than other positions, but New England is already dealing with enough problems as it is without RB Dion Lewis (36 catches, 4.8 yards per carry) and several of their offensive linemen. We're 100-percent confident that the Bills will cover the spread more than 52.4 percent of the time in this situation.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Bills +7.5 (-120)  at Pinnacle

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