Make the +7 Titans & Mettenberger Your Week 7 Contrary NFL Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 23, 2015 3:49 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 3:49 PM UTC

We are back again with our contrarian play and boy do we have a big one this week.  We are saddling up with the Titans, sans Mariota, at a +7 home dog line in the hopes of adding to our 5-1 record. 

Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Tennessee Titans 1:00 EST
The Atlanta Falcons visit the Tennessee Titans for this 1 PM Eastern Time kick on NFL Sunday. When you read the ensuing analysis, it will be clear to you why this is the LONE RANGER PLAY OF THE WEEK. Each week I select a highly improbable play on the NFL card, which is clearly contrary in nature. To date, these have gone 5-1 ATS this NFL season. Because of the facts below, it is clear why the Tennessee Titans qualify as the NFL pick for our week 7 lone ranger. You can put the NFL odds in your favor by joining me as the small portion of NFL bettors who line up with the Titans this week.

The Atlanta Falcons’ story is well documented. Under first year HC Quinn, there has been a remarkable turnaround. The offense has gotten even better, averaging 31 PPG and rushing the ball an average of 30 times per game for 130/4.4 to complement the strong passing game of QB Ryan. But the greatest improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball, where the Falcon defensive front is allowing just 22 rushes per game for 9/3.6. That type of dominance at the point of attack will win you a lot of money. It is no wonder the Falcons are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in making the biggest turnaround of any NFL team this season. Atlanta has had 10 days to rest following their 31-21 loss at New Orleans on Thursday night football. A +3 net turnover margin, a function of three lost fumbles, is directly to blame, for Atlanta was again successful at the point of attack, outrushing the Saints 150-81. The public has forgiven them this indiscretion and is expecting a bounce back. Prospects for Tennessee are not nearly as bright.

Under second year HC Whisenhunt, the Titans are 3-18 SU and enter tonight on a 4 game losing streak. Those defeats came at Cleveland 28-14, then three consecutive home losses to Indy by 2, Buffalo 1, and last week’s embarrassment 38-10 at the hands of the struggling Miami team; in that contest the Titans were outrushed 180-63 and committed 4 turnovers. That defeat dropped the Titans’ record to 2-13 ATS off a loss, 4-12 ATS in non-division play, 5-14 ATS as underdog, and 1-10 SU at home under Whisenhunt. In addition, star rookie QB Mariotta (knee) has not practiced as of this Thursday writing, and must be considered doubtful for this Sunday contest. If so, he will give way to QB Mettenberger. Who signs up for that program? Only you, me, and the LONE RANGER as we cash another contrary play.

 NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans +7 (+7) -130

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