Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL square off on Sunday night. Which player props offer the best value for the showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady?
Brady currently leads the head-to-head matchup with Patrick Mahomes 3-2, including the Buccaneers' 31-9 win in Super Bowl LV. That was the only matchup between these two players to be decided by more than one touchdown. Brady is 3-2 overall and 2-0 in the postseason, but Mahomes has the better regular season record at 2-1.
Which player props offer the best value when these two match up for the sixth time?
Here are our Brady vs. Mahomes player prop picks for Week 4 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Chiefs-Buccaneers picks and preview here.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds
Mahomes vs. Brady Prop Picks
Mahomes-Brady Prop Picks
Mahomes to have more passing yards (-110) ★★★
Mahomes has thrown for more passing yards than Tom Brady in four of their five matchups. Even the last time they met, when Brady and the Buccaneers demolished the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LV, Mahomes threw for 69 more yards than Brady.
This season, the Buccaneers defense has done a great job of stymying some of the best quarterbacks in the game. However, this is more about a lack of trust for Brady than an overly optimistic view of how this game will go for Mahomes.
The Buccaneers are 2-1, and yet they haven’t relied all that much on Brady to get to their record. Last week he threw for 271 yards, but his team trailed the entire game, and he had to mount a late comeback which fell short. Prior to that, he had thrown for just 190 and 212 yards through two games.
Meanwhile, Mahomes has thrown for at least 235 in every game this season. The Buccaneers' secondary may pose problems for him and his receivers, but that doesn’t change the type of offense the Chiefs run. Look for Mahomes to throw for considerable yardage, while Brady can rely on his supporting cast.
Check out our top player props for Week 4 here.
Mahomes to have more passing touchdowns (-110) ★★★
Round 2 goes to Mahomes as well. Interestingly, DraftKings lists Mahomes with better odds than Brady to throw more than one touchdown, but they have Brady favored head-to-head to throw more touchdowns in the game. That’s a line that simply doesn’t make sense.
In their five meetings, Mahomes has thrown more touchdowns than Brady twice, with the two tying twice as well. For this matchup, Brady certainly has the better matchup, and he has the better receiving corps if they actually take the field.
However, Mahomes is more important to his team. Therefore, if the Chiefs are going to win, Mahomes is going to have to lead the way. And even if they lose, he may throw for four touchdowns. Brady has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this season. Yet, the Bucs have accomplished mostly what they’ve needed to thus far.
Brady's longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115) ★★★
With no more head-to-head props available, it’s time to give some love to Brady. Last week, Brady’s longest completion was 25 yards, but he was working with a totally depleted receiving corps. He didn’t have Julio Jones, who he connected with for a 48-yarder in Week 1, or Mike Evans, who he connected with for a 41-yarder in Week 2.
Jones, along with Chris Godwin, is a game-time decision for Sunday night, but Brady will have Evans back. That alone would really help him in the deep passing game.
Where to Bet on Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes Props
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Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes picks made 9/30/2022 at 3:35 p.m. ET