Look to Spread for Best Thursday Night Football Betting Value

Jeff Grant

Thursday, November 13, 2014 4:02 PM GMT

Buffalo has one of the best defensive fronts in football, which makes it a clear Week 11 NFL pick as a road underdog against Miami Thursday night.

Road Warriors
Buffalo is 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS through nine games this season, which is important to consider when looking over the NFL odds, as it has won and covered the number in three of four road games.

The Bills have gotten solid play out of quarterback Kyle Orton, who has proven victorious in three of his five starts since taking over for EJ Manuel—throwing 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 4-2 SUATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points when playing away from home, with the UNDER going 4-1-1 in that situation.

 

Miserable Performance
Miami was handed a 20-16 defeat by the Detroit Lions as three-point road underdogs last week, as it was limited to season-low totals of 50 rushing and 228 total yards.

The Dolphins will be sending out a makeshift offensive line for this key AFC East matchup, which can’t be ignored when making your NFL betting picks, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill has lost four of five career starts in this series.

Since the start of the Tannehill era, the squad is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points, with the UNDER going 5-1-1 in those seven opportunities.

 

Getting After Quarterbacks
The Bills are tied with the Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals in tallying 19 takeaways in 2014, as they’ve done a great job of creating pressure with a talented defensive front—a unit that leads the league with 34 sacks.

Buffalo managed to drop Tannehill four times in a 29-10 victory over Miami as 1.5-point home favorites on Sept. 14, with the UNDER cashing for the fourth time in the last five meetings.

 

Miller Is the Key
There’s no doubt that Dolphins running back Lamar Miller is the key player to handicap at Sun Life Stadium, as he gained just 10 yards on four carries last week due to being limited by a sore shoulder.

Miami has an opportunity to move the football on the ground if Miller can bounce back on a short week, as Buffalo has surrendered 460 rushing yards in its last three affairs.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Bills as part of their Thursday Night NFL picks, as they’ve covered the number in four of their last five games against the Dolphins.

NFL Pick:  Buffalo Bills +4.5 at The Greek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290710, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]