Will the Chiefs mastermind the upset or will the Chargers come through as the NFL betting favorites? Find out as we breakdown the NFL odds and serve up our free NFL picks.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-2 away)
3rd AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs descend on divisional rivals San Diego Chargers on Sunday following a bye week, all the while mindful of a rather poor 1-3 ATS record following a bye since 2010.
The Chiefs (2-3 SU) will hope to capitalise on the benefit of rest and added time to prepare well in advance for the AFC West leaders San Diego Chargers that according to all indications look tough to beat. However, odds makers aren’t putting much stock in a road win by the Chiefs, listing them as the long shot NFL pick at +175. Indeed, if defending Super Bowl champions failed to pull off the feat in San Diego, no doubt the Chiefs will have their work cut out for them as well.
Chiefs (3-2 ATS) got off to a slow start on the season, succumbing to a shock upset to the Titans at Arrowhead Stadium. Immediately afterwards, however, they bounced back with a respectable 24-17 defeat to the Broncos on the road, and then reeled off back-to-back wins over the Dolphins and Patriots. Although they were unable to carry the momentum into week 5’s clash with the Niners, the Chiefs did enough in those two victories – namely by decimating the Patriots 41-14 at home – to convince NFL bettors they won’t be pushovers, which in turn could make them the value NFL pick as the 4-point pups on the road.
San Diego Chargers (5-1, 3-0 home)
1st AFC West
San Diego Chargers have won five straight on the trot, since an opening day defeat to the Arizona Cardinals. The catalyst for their winning streak proved to be the 30-20 victory at home over the defending champions Seattle Seahawks. Impressive though the win was do we know how good the Chargers really are? It’s quite obvious the Chargers benefited from a weak spot in the schedule that saw them take on a modest Buffalo Bills side and three straight NFL stragglers in Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and Oakland Raiders, all of whom can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. Not to take anything away from the Chargers, but they were bound to capitalise against subpar teams.
Therefore, at face value, the Chargers would appear to be deserved home favourites at -210 NFL odds to win straight up and as the 4-point chalk. However, the Chiefs – and the Broncos in week 8 NFL betting as well – are sure to be a better barometer of where the Chargers truly fall in NFL betting estimation.
NFL Betting Verdict
Chiefs have the seventh best pass defense in the league, which averages 214.4 yards allowed per game – a facet of their game that should enjoy measured success against Philip Rivers. Another aspect that could work for the Chiefs is their rushing offense, which ranks fourth in the league thanks to gaining 137.6 points per game on average. The Chiefs managed to pull off these adequate numbers against stiff opposition, all while putting up an average of 23.8 points.
Chargers are sixth in the league in passing offense with an average of 285.5 yards per game and they are fourth against the pass and 9th against the rush. Once again, it’s important to keep in mind the bulk of those numbers are down to games against teams that are no better than .500 this season – Jaguars and Raiders are .000, Jets are .167 and Bills are .500. Winning begets winning, in other words it breeds confidence. The Chargers may well fancy their chances to deliver as the NFL betting favourites, but it’s our opinion that the Chiefs will prove a tough nut to crack in San Diego, if not mastermind the upset entirely as the +175 underdogs. Therefore, we recommend the Chiefs as the 4-point pups on your NFL picks. If you’re feeling brave, take the Chiefs on their money line odds at +175 as well.
NFL Free Picks: Chiefs +4.0 at BetOnline