Longest Spreads for NFL Week 4

Jay Pryce

Saturday, September 30, 2017 1:21 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 30, 2017 1:21 PM UTC

Six Week 4 matchups see spreads of 6 points or more on the NFL odds board. Which teams cover? Which, if any, win outright? Here are our picks.

NFL bettors have witnessed a 6.5-point favorite lose outright in Week 4 in each of the last three seasons. Six games on the NFL odds board currently show underdogs catching as many points: Panthers (+9), Bills (+8), Rams (+6.5), 49ers (+6.5), Colts (+13), and Redskins (+7). Which team has the best chance to pull off a stunner? Which ones will cover the spread? Here are our NFL picks:


Panthers at Patriots (-9)

The New England offense scores in bunches at Gillette Stadium, putting up 28.9 per game since the start of last season. The Panthers defense might be just good enough to slow QB Tom Brady and company down and stay competitive. Carolina has covered four of its last five against offenses averaging better than 21 points per game and enters this contest holding foes to 251.7 total yards per tilt, tops in the NFL.

The Panthers’ offense will need to awaken from its slumber to stay close. The New England defense might be the perfect wake-up call. It’s surrendering 31.7 points per game, allowing teams to score more than projected in the betting market by 11.4 points on average.

We mentioned in our early season NFL trends article on Friday that fading Brady at home in the first half of the season, when asked to cover at least 9 points, has proven a profitable wager. The Pats are 7-12 ATS in this spot. Carolina will not win, but likely keep a New England victory within a touchdown.

Free NFL Pick: Carolina +9Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Bills at Falcons (-8)

Buffalo’s defense is darn right nasty, but there is little chance of any unit slowing down Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons. Since last year’s opener, Atlanta has scored 30 points or more in nine of 10 home games. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has led the team to more than 30 points once in 15 career away trips. No chance of an upset here; Buffalo lacks the firepower.

Free NFL Pick: Falcons -8Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Rams at Cowboys (-6)

Sharps have lowered the line from a 7.5-point opener in favor of the Cowboys to the Rams +6. Dallas is backed by roughly 60 percent of spread bets with 24 hours until kickoff. After watching a near second-half meltdown by L.A. at San Francisco last weekend, we’ll side with the public in this one. The Rams defense in its last four road game have allowed 49, 26, 24, and 39 points respectively. The Cowboys have issues on that side of the ball, too, but should see off L.A. in this one. Dallas is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six at Jerryworld versus opponents with a losing record from the prior season.

Free NFL Pick: Cowboys -6Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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49ers at Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to begin the year, losing to the number by 8.2 points per game. The offense is flat and unable to move the ball. This is killing the defense, which has given up 26 and 21 second-half points in both losses. San Francisco, meanwhile, appeared comfortable in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme last week for the first time since camp opened in August. Expect the unit to keep clicking on this one. Arizona is 1-7 ATS when laying 4 points or more to the Niners all-time. This is one of two long-odd dogs with a chance at an outright upset on Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: 49ers ML, 49ers +6.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Colts at Seahawks (-13)

Since 1995, no team catching more than 12 points has pulled off a shock upset in Week 4. Moreover, it is just 3-7 ATS. The Seahawks offense is just as poor as the Colts minus their star quarterback Andrew Luck, but the Legion of Boom will assure victory here. Indy will struggle to reach 14 points. Seattle’s offense finally looks like a NFL-caliber unit; Seahawks in a rout.

Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -13Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Redskins at Chiefs (-7)

The Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders, but much of their recent success is a product on beating up the AFC West. They are 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 divisional matchups. Other foes have given head coach Andy Reid trouble, particularly at Arrowhead Stadium. K.C. is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six non-divisional home matchups. The team was one play away from coughing up a 27-20 victory to the Eagles last Sunday. The Redskins started slowly, but the defense is proving a diamond in the rough. In its last six games against offenses averaging more than 24 points, its allowed 20 or fewer in four. If Alex Smith struggles, Washington shocks on Monday night. 

Free NFL Pick: Redskins +7, Redskins MLBest Line Offered: at YouWager

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