Lock Bears to Cover +9 vs. Packers With Your Week 12 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 8:13 PM UTC

We continue the Thanksgiving Day of Feast Week with a preview of the Bears vs. Packers game on Thursday night. Go inside for our NFL pick on this intriguing NFC North contest.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-9) 8:30 ET
If you have not already stuffed yourself full of winners with Philly and Dallas this afternoon, then grab a big piece of desert with the Chicago Bears tonight!  At 8:30 ET at venerable Lambeau Field, the legendary Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears in this NFC North divisional rivalry.  Currently, the Packers hold the tiebreaker against the Vikings by virtue of their (30-13) victory last week against the Norsemen.  The Bears, meanwhile, shot themselves in the paw with a (17-15) home loss to the Broncos.  Many say it’s not a rivalry unless the series is competitive.  That has NOT been the case in the games between these teams, as Green Bay holds an 8-1 SU ATS series edge with an average victory of 12 PPG.  How will the Bears ever stay with Green Bay, now that the Pack is back on track?  When these two met earlier in the season, in Week 1, Green Bay prevailed (31-23).


Green Bay Packers
Entering last week’s key divisional contest against Minnesota, Green Bay was in a major funk.  They were on a 0-3 SU, 0-4 ATS run, losing consecutive games to Denver, Carolina and then Detroit, a team they had defeated 24 consecutive times at this Lambeau Field venue.  Surely, the motivation of that PHL (previous home loss), the confidence from last week’s victory against Minnesota and the knowledge of their strong history against these Bears will make the Packers the Odds On choice to prevail.  Last week, in the victory over the Vikings, they rediscovered the ground game, outrushing Minnesota 34/124 to 18/94.  It was a complete reversal of form for both the Packers and the Vikings.  But, it says here that tonight’s victory will not come so easily.


Chicago Bears
This is a Chicago Bear team that is undergoing a major metamorphosis under HC Fox and OC Gase.  Last week, against the strong defense of Denver, the Bears lost a close one (17-15).  It was a tough loss to take for Fox and Gase, who had been fired by Denver at the end of last season.  But, the combination of that loss and revenge for the Week 1 home field defeat at the hands of these Green Bay Packers will bring great motivation to a vastly improved Bears team today.  The key to NFL success often revolves around the running game and defense.  Do you know that the Bears actually are running for 112 RYPG to 110 YPG for the Packers?  Now, the Bears have the scheduled return of their best rusher RB Forte.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears allow 28 YPG less than Green Bay and actually have the superior defensive YP play.  The Bears have enough running game and defense to make this game competitive.

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and take the generous 9 points, as we culminate Thanksgiving Day of Feast Week with my NFL pick on the Chicago Bears. 

NFL Picks: Bears +9 at The Greek

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