It's an interesting story topic I was given by my editors at SBR here: Which quarterbacks should you trust when betting on NFL games. Well, the ones that play on good teams! But let's get a little more in depth on the subject.
<p>The team with the best against the spread record in the NFL last season was the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/vikings-2016-game-by-game-win-loss-predictions/73532" target="_blank" title="Vikings 2016 Game-by-Game Win-Loss Predictions">Minnesota Vikings</a> at 13-3 ATS in the regular season. They were surprising winners of the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/superbowl-props-betting/#nfcnorth" target="_blank" title="NFC North Winner & NFL Futures">NFC North</a> Division with an 11-5 overall mark, ending Green Bay's four-year reign atop the North thanks to a Week 17 upset in Lambeau. Minnesota's season ended in heartbreaking fashion, however, when kicker <strong>Blair Walsh</strong> hooked a potential game-winning 27-yard field goal in the wild-card round against the Seattle Seahawks. If the Vikings played that game in their new domed stadium that opens this season instead of outdoors at the University of Minnesota, I can all but guarantee you that Walsh makes that kick. So including playoffs, the Vikings were 14-3 ATS on <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/" target="_blank" title="More NFL Picks Available Here">NFL picks</a> (they were 4-point home dogs vs. Seattle).</p><p>Does that mean you should trust <strong>Teddy Bridgewater</strong> more than any other QB from a betting perspective this year? Certainly not as Bridgewater wouldn't be on anyone's list of even a Top-15 overall guy. He completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 3,231 yards, only 14 touchdowns and nine picks in 2015. The Vikings kept covering because they had a great running game behind NFL rushing king <strong>Adrian Peterson </strong>as well as a terrific defense. In hindsight, they were also underdogs <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/" target="_blank" title="Do You Agree? Let Us Know In The SBR Forum">more often than they should have been.</a></p><p>It definitely depends on what a player has around him. Green Bay's <strong>Aaron Rodgers</strong> was named the NFL's MVP in 2014 for the second time in his career and the Packers were a very solid 11-5 ATS in the regular season. But Rodgers missed No. 1 receiver <strong>Jordy Nelson</strong> last year when Nelson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. The Packers' offense suffered without Nelson and they slipped to 9-7 ATS.</p><p>One of the most underrated NFL quarterbacks in terms of covering the spread the past few seasons has been Cincinnati's <strong>Andy Dalton</strong>. His Bengals looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender last season before Dalton broke his thumb in Week 14 against Pittsburgh, which would end his season. The Bengals were a stunning 10-1-1 ATS on <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/" target="_blank" title="Compare Live Odds From The Best Sportbook">NFL odds</a> entering that Steelers game. Dalton was hurt early in it and Cincinnati lost that game and then again to visiting Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. It's in the playoffs where Dalton has been shaky with his 0-4 record, but A.J. McCarron was under center last year.</p><p>Another statistic when looking at quarterbacks to wager on is how clutch they are in the fourth quarter. Most NFL teams are pretty even overall in terms of talent level -- it's not like college football. So more often than not, the games are decided in the final quarter. <strong>Peyton Manning</strong> leads the NFL in his career (since 1960) with 45 fourth-quarter comeback wins during his days with the Colts and Broncos. Of course Manning retired this offseason after leading Denver to the Super Bowl. He led four fourth-quarter comebacks in 2015, including in the divisional round against the Steelers.</p><p>New England's <strong>Tom Brady</strong>, who will be suspended the first four games this year, is second in history with 37 fourth-quarter comeback wins. He had two last year, against the Jets and Giants. The other current leaders among active quarterbacks at <strong>Eli Manning</strong>, <strong>Ben Roethlisberger</strong>, <strong>Drew Brees</strong> and <strong>Tony Romo</strong>. Since 2006, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback victories than Romo's 25, and his passer rating in the fourth quarter is a stellar 102.9, five points higher than the No. 2 Rodgers. The Cowboys totally fell apart last year with Romo being limited to four games.</p><p>The quarterback I least trust in the NFL right now? Chicago's <strong>Jay Cutler.</strong> His ATS record overall in his career is worse than any active quarterback who has played at least three seasons. Last year, Chicago was 8-7 ATS with him as the starter with Cutler missing one game against Seattle. The year before, with Cutler also missing one game, it was 5-10 ATS. And the year before that it was 2-8-1 ATS as Cutler missed five games. Cutler has the arm talent to match anyone but continues to make poor decisions in the fourth quarter of games. </p><p style="text-align:center">Read more on NFL Betting Here: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/the-nfl-betting-bible-to-cash-in-picks/73569" target="_blank" title="Let’s Discuss Some Of The Strategies For NFL Betting">The Betting Bible To Cash In NFL Picks</a></p>