Lions vs. Steelers Week 10 Picks: Pittsburgh To Fail To Cover Once Again

The Steelers play host to the lowly Lions this Sunday. On the surface, this is an easy win for Pittsburgh but a disturbing betting trend should give us pause. Find out what that is with our Lions and Steelers picks for Week 10.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are back in the hunt for an AFC North title. After starting the season 1-3, the Steelers have won four straight games to sit just one game behind Cleveland in the divisional race. Their opponents are the Detroit Lions, who are the only NFL team still without a win. Detroit is coming off a 44-6 blowout loss to Philadelphia at home two weeks ago.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Lions and the Steelers (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Lions vs. Steelers Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PAWeather: 37 degrees, cloudy, 10.3 MPH winds

Lions vs. Steelers Odds Analysis

Detroit opened as a 7.5-point favorite at most books, rising to as high as nine points, before settling on the current 8.5-point line. The majority of bets are on Detroit, but the overwhelming amount of money is on Pittsburgh.

The total opened at 44.5 and has slowly dropped to either 42.5 or 43 depending on the sportsbook. The split is close to fifty percent on both the Over and the Under.

Editor's Note: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out Saturday night. This isn't reflected in the write-up.

Lions vs. Steelers Betting Picks

Lions +8.5 (-110) ????Under 42.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Betting Trends to Monitor in Week 10 Games

Lions vs. Steelers Predictions

Lions +8.5 (-110)

Detroit’s game against the Eagles was their worst performance of the season, including a total of just 57 rushing yards. They will face a completely different offensive scheme against Pittsburgh, one that is devoid of a mobile quarterback.

Head coach Dan Campbell has been able to motivate his team all season and should be able to compete against a Pittsburgh roster that hasn’t defeated a team by more than eight points. Their defense has actually been effective at pressuring the opposing quarterback, registering a 12.9% hurry rate (eighth-best).

Detroit’s offensive line was expected to be one of the league’s best, but they have struggled with injuries. This week, they benefit from the return of offensive tackle Taylor Decker. This should move rookie OT Penei Sewell to right tackle, solidifying a frontline anchored by Evan Brown. The 25-year old center has been a pleasant surprise, ranking 10th-best at the position per Pro Football Focus.

Pittsburgh wide receiver Chase Claypool will miss this game with a toe injury, joining teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster who is already out for the season. The Lions secondary has struggled to contain the deep ball, but Pittsburgh doesn't have the weapons or quarterback ability to attack that weakness.

Detroit has some elite offensive weapons with tight end T.J. Hockenson and versatile running back D'Andre Swift. Through the first half of the season, Swift has been the best pass-catching running back in the league, ranking first in targets (57), receptions (47), and receiving yards (415).

The Steelers are 0-7 against the spread as favorites since December 2, 2020. Pittsburgh has a tendency to play down to their opponents when they're favored, which is why we think taking Detroit with the points is the right pick in this Lions and Steelers matchup.

Under 42.5 (-110)

I still like this Under even though it has dropped from an opening 45.5-point line. The Lions have the benefit of coming off a bye week, and the increased protection of quarterback Jared Goff should facilitate efficiency in the short to intermediate route passing attack. Detroit has been deliberate in their offensive attack, ranking just 27th in pace in neutral game script situations. If the Lions limit their turnovers, this game will remain close and low-scoring.

The Steelers are limited in their offensive attack and will continue to provide Najee Harris with a ton of carries. Harris ranks first in carries (150), and a run-heavy approach always favors the Under.

I project a close, low-scoring game at Heinz Field, with a strong effort from a Detroit team desperate to register their first win.

SEE ALSO: Eagles vs. Broncos Week 10 Picks

Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 3:09 p.m. ET