Which Way is the Line Moving?
As you are no doubt aware by now, the oddsmakers tagged the Seahawks as 1 ½ point favorites in NFL odds right out of the gate. However, the tide has shifted and either the public, the sharps or a combination of the two, poured enough money on the Broncos to force the oddsmakers to reconsider and moved the needle to Denver -2 ½. But if you look at the NFL odds today, you will find that the line has shifted yet again only this time it’s moving down. Denver is currently favored by two in most offshore shops which obviously means that the Seahawks are attracting the most recent influx of money.
If you have been around the sports betting block then you are no doubt aware that those slight changes can indicate big things. While I may be leaning towards a wager on the Broncos, this most recent development gives me cause for pause. As the game draws closer and the weather forecast becomes clearer, my conviction for a wager on either side will grow stronger. If the teams will battle in bitter cold and snow flurries then I will shift my allegiance to Seattle but if it’s a brisk sunny day I will maintain that Peyton will have his second Super Bowl ring. As always, we will keep you updated here at SBR.
While the focus is squarely on the teams and who will cover the spread in NFL odds, let’s take a moment to consider the total. When the line opened, bookmakers were dealing the total at 47 ½ but it quickly shot up to as high as 48 ½ in some online sportsbooks. However now we take a gander and see that it currently sits at 47 at books like Bet365.com. We have to believe that if the scoreboard is lighting up then the Broncos will most likely prevail but if brutal weather conditions and defense rules the day then the Seahawks will be the play.
As stated previously, the latest move appears to have shifted on Seattle and not so coincidentally the total is moving down as well. Could these dynamics give us some insight, a betting edge if you will, into where the smart money is going to ultimately rest? We still have ten days until kickoff and there will be much more shifting of both the point spread and the total but as of this writing it appears as though Seattle and Under is the play.