Is It Possible to Profit Off Home Underdogs?

Cleveland Browns

Ross Benjamin

Monday, July 11, 2016 2:20 PM GMT

Monday, Jul. 11, 2016 2:20 PM GMT

If done properly, NFL betting on home underdogs could be a very profitable endeavour. Read on as our professional handicapper presents some interesting stats on picking the underdogs.

Assessing NFL Underdog Betting Value
One of my favorite things to attack when handicapping NFL games involves identifying underdog betting value. After all, when wagering on an underdog, there are two ways to produce a winning wager. You can either win the game outright or cover the spread despite a straight up defeat. Contrarily, favorites have two ways they can lose and only one manner in which it will win. It’s not as easy as it may sound, but zeroing in on specific conditions can certainly enhance your likelihood of winning.

Through the course of this article, I’ll take a look at how underdogs not only fared last season but also over long stretches of time. All of these results will exclude pushes, and include solely regular season outcomes.

 

2015-2016 Regular Season
NFL underdogs went 127-110 (53.6%) ATS last year. You may be surprised to know, away underdogs performed much better than those playing at home. Let’s go inside the numbers to find out what degree of profitability we’re talking about.

 

Last Year’s Home Dogs
Home underdogs were a lackluster 40-38 ATS (51.2%) a season ago and went 31-47 straight up (.397) in those contests. Hypothetically, if you wagered to win $100 on all 78 of those home underdogs, at an average money line price of -110, it would’ve culminated in a loss of $180.

 

Road Puppies
Away underdogs were a solid 89-74 ATS (54.6%) last year. When using the same betting patterns of playing to win $100, and at an average money line price of -110, they produced a net profit of $760.

Now let’s tighten the parameters up and explore further. Road underdog versus division opponents was especially lucrative last year, going 39-22 ATS (63.9%), and came away winning 30 of those 61 games outright. If the division away dogs were coming off a win in their previous game, they improved to a remarkable 19-4 ATS (82.6%), and a stunning 15-8 (.652) straight up. The moral to this story, if you honed in on road underdogs for your NFL picks last season, and specifically when facing a divisional opponent, it brought about some very successful investing.

 

Double Digit Home Dogs
If there’s one aspect of wagering on home underdogs that's been remarkably consistent over the years, it’s when NFL betting odds display those that are +10.0 or greater. Since 1995, NFL double-digit home underdogs are a prosperous 69-42 ATS (62.1%). Even more astounding, if they were coming off an SU&ATS loss in their previous game, and failed to cover by 10.0 points or more, those sizable home underdogs improved to an extremely inspiring 32-9 ATS (78%). How about getting even greedier. Since 2000, home underdogs of 10.0 or more after game 11 of the season, coming off a SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 10.0 or more, went a perfect 17-0 ATS.

 

Final Take
I’ve touched upon just some basic data in this article regarding NFL underdogs. In future writings, I’ll get into handicapping theories, and betting angles pertaining to this specific subject. When it concerns sports betting, there are no shortcuts. Nevertheless, make no mistake about it, taking NFL underdogs can be a very profitable venture, and particularly so when provided with an opportunistic situation.

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