Lay the Points on Sanchez & Eagles in Week 12 over Titans

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 2:42 PM GMT

The Tennessee Titans nearly won a game on Monday Night Football. Seriously. Should we go out and pound the NFL odds this Sunday when the Titans visit the Philadelphia Eagles as 10.5-point underdogs?

Jason’s record after Week 11: 29-43 ATS, 13-17-1 Totals

Profit: minus-45.95 units

We don’t hide our betting records here at the ranch. We’ve never felt the need before – this is our first significant downswing since we started making NFL picks for the people. Many of our colleagues are in the same soup as us, and we’re happy enough with our methods, although we’re always trying to improve. In the end, we’re flipping a coin that might land our way 53 percent of the time. Thank you for flipping with us.

So, like, OMFG, the Tennessee Titans?! Really? Really? Amazing. The Titans almost beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (–7 away) Monday night, but they still beat the NFL odds in a valiant 27-24 defeat. Of course we were on the Steelers and the UNDER. This was the most points Tennessee had scored since Week 5. So we’re not going to overreact when the Titans play the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) with Philadelphia opening as a 10.5-point home chalk.

 

Lightly Soiled Sanchez
Oy, the Eagles. They did indeed lay an egg Sunday afternoon against the Green Bay Packers, losing 53-20 as 4.5-point road dogs in a game that was pretty much over by halftime. And yes, we were on Philadelphia (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) in that one. So much for Mark Sanchez and his redemption, right? He threw a pick-six in the third quarter and fumbled the ball away for another Packers return TD in the fourth. 

Remember that thing about the coin and the 53 percent? Sunday’s performance is what you sometimes get from Sanchez. Our bias causes us to place twice as much emphasis on the negative, and that’s how most casual fans view The Sanchize. The stats tell us something else:

Sanchez (35 career wins): 58.8 COMP%, 49 TD, 23 INT, 87.6 passer rating
Sanchez (30 career losses): 52.0 COMP%, 25 TD, 50 INT, 58.8 passer rating

There you have it: 53.8 percent of the time, Sanchez has played like an efficient game manager. The other 46.2 percent of the time, he’s been hot garbage. Which Sanchez are you going to get from week to week? Sweet Jeremiah, if we knew that, we’d be zillionaries by now. But if we just keep flipping that coin, we’re going to make some money in the long run. The very, very long run.

Dont' miss out the action. Visit our NFL odds page and hunt down the best lines.

Make Sure You Ask for Titans
We feel the same way when it comes to fading the Titans (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS). If you’ve been following the Steelers at all this year, you know they’ve been about as consistent as that first watery squirt of mustard that comes out of those damned plastic bottles. Or like Sanchez, in other words. But full credit to QB Zach Mettenberger, who threw for a pair of TDs and posted a 110.2 passer rating in the best game of his young career.

Let’s see him do that again this week against the Eagles. They had the No. 6-ranked defense in the league (No. 9 pass, No. 5 rush) before running into Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Pittsburgh had the league’s No. 25-ranked defense (No. 25 pass, No. 17 rush) before facing Mettenberger and the Titans. This is kind of important. Rodgers gets up every Sunday, eats breakfast, and puts up monster numbers. Pittsburgh’s defense made Mettenberger look like Rodgers last week. That’s something we wouldn’t expect to happen 53 percent of the time against Philadelphia.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: PHI
Defense/Special Teams: PHI
Coaching: PHI
Market Bias: TEN
Betting Line Value: TEN

Verdict: 1-star pick on PHI

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Eagles –10.5 at BetOnline

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