Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted in some key matchups from their openers to late in the week. We hope this gives a clearer picture of what numbers you should be getting in your Week 7 NFL picks.
Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR and below are the three top selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday.
Falcons +6 ½ vs. Ravens
The NFL odds on this one have remained rock steady. The Ravens are still almost a touchdown favorite here with virtually all the offshores dealing Baltimore -6 ½ in NFL odds. We still love the betting value with the Dirty Birds here.
Titans vs. Redskins -5 ½ (MAX PLAY)
The Redskins broke my heart last week when Kirk Cousins tossed an ATS money burner with only 18 seconds left as the Cardinals took that pick-six to the house and added another nail in the coffin to my NFL picks. However, this game is different because the team they're playing is different - they're awful. And thus this number has spiked from an early opening Washington -4 to as high as -7(+115) at 5Dimes.com. But if you want to ride this maximum unit play with me then you should get yourself on over to Pinnacle.com where they are dealing the 'Skins at -6 in NFL odds.
49'ers +7 vs. Broncos
As my esteemed colleague LT Profits so succinctly put it - Denver is overvalued in this spot. Yet the squares will be lining up to lay the lumber at Mile High which is why the NFL odds have remained steady as of this late writing. The 49'ers getting a touchdown against a team whose running game has gone south with the exodus of Knowshon Moreno no longer carrying the rock has led to the Broncos 26th ranked rushing attack. Grab the touchdown head start and wait to cash your NFL picks.
NFL Odds Movers & Shakers
Dolphins vs. Bears
The Bears opened as -3 ½ in NFL odds as home favorites over the visiting Dolphins but that number has dipped to three in recent days. Now while a half-point doesn't mean much if a team is favored by 19 it is a substantial move whenever a betting line falls off the all-important field goal. Beware all my chalk eating friends as this could be the flare in the darkness that should alert you that the Fins may be the right side in this one.
Browns vs. Jaguars
SBR odds indicate the early number being offered by the offshores in this one was Browns -3 but that number has spiraled upwards and currently most books are dealing Cleveland as 5 ½ point betting favorites. Of course 5Dimes.com tends to shade the favorites ever so slightly and has the Brownies tagged as six-point road faves. Seems a bit high to me after Cleveland whooped their archrivals from Pittsburgh last week and will no doubt be a bit deflated facing the worst team in football on the road.
Vikings vs. Bills
The Bills opened as three-point betting favorites over the Vikings but that line has now risen to as high as 5 ½ in many offshores books. This one is a bit hard to figure as both teams took a sound beating last week but the public might be feeding off that energy that was on display last week when Buffalo ownership changed hands and Ralph Wilson Stadium was positively electric before the Patriots shut down the power. Expect another raucous crowd in Buffalo this week.
Chiefs vs. Chargers
The NFL odds opened with the Chargers installed as 5 ½ point favorites but that line has fallen across the board. The number we are now seeing is San Diego -4 as the sharps or the public or both have solidly fallen behind the Chiefs.
Giants vs. Cowboys
Everybody loves America's Team again or at least the betting public does this week as the Boyz opened as five-point favorites in NFL odds but that number is nowhere to be found and 5Dimes.com again leads the parade if you like betting underdogs because they have now tagged Jerry Jones's fun bunch at -7.