Late Odds Movement Creates Value for Your Week 9 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, November 2, 2014 2:39 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2014 2:39 PM UTC

Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 9 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.  

Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week.

Redskins vs. Vikings (-2 ½)
The oft-injured and ailing RG3 will be back under center and that little tidbit of information was not disseminated when I advised a play on the home chalk Vikings that had been installed as 2 ½ point betting favorites in NFL odds very early this week. But now things are all even up as the public, perhaps the sharps or a little of both are getting down on the 'Skins as reflected in the NFL odds which are suddenly at a pick'em.

I should have waited but the truth be told I'm not getting off this game and I am not runnin' scared. And in addition, how would I have known to wait? My inside source within Daniel Snyder's organization has been demoted from janitor to parking attendant so he's no good to me. The bottom line here is that RG3 is really no big deal. Not anymore. The Redskins are still the team coming off a colossal win on Monday night (short week for them by the way) over the Cowboys as 10-point road dogs and are certainly due for a letdown. Don't let RG3's resurrection in Week 9 fool you - he's going to be rusty and he'll probably get injured. Stay the course and play the Vikings with your NFL picks.

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Jets vs. Chiefs (-10)
As early as I do my homework and research for the NFL's coming attractions sometimes it's still not early enough to take advantage of a terrific number. Tuesday night was far too late to get the Chiefs -7 ½ in NFL odds and that's just a damn shame. By the time I had meticulously culled the wheat from the chaff and locked onto my three top selections, KC was sitting not nearly as pretty at -10.

Those NFL odds are pretty much still in play however I do see more 9's and 9 ½ 's out there which certainly gives me cause for pause. Somebody is seeing something positive about the Jets as it takes a pretty good influx of cash to get online sportsbooks to move off potentially pivotal numbers like 10.

I'm not gonna lie to you kids, I've seen this movie before and I have paid dearly for the privilege. As I watch more money pour in on Gang Green I am not nearly as confident as I was earlier this week yet I am not about to get off my side. Arrowhead is no picnic for visiting teams and if the Chiefs could dismantle the Patriots in these environs then why can't they ground the hapless Jets?

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Rams vs. 49'ers (-10)
With the notable exception of dealing the Niners at -10 ½ (+115) , the book that routinely shades the favorites which make its a golden out if you habitually include underdogs in your NFL picks, I see mainly 9 ½ 's and 10's out in the wonderful world of offshore NFL odds. As with the Chiefs, I am always a bit suspicious if the odds shift off the number. And speaking of numbers, seasoned gamblers are all cognizant of those that are of the utmost important like 3,4,6,7 and 10. For neurotics like me I am also leery of anything leaning a hook one way or the other off of 13,14,17,20 and 21.

Niners -10 in your NFL picks still looks like a strong play to me and if you can get it at 9 ½ then so much the better.

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