Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted throughout Week 8 in order to give you a clearer picture of what numbers you should be getting in your Week 8 NFL picks.
Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the two selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week.
St. Louis Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-130 buying one point)
When this game opened early Monday morning the Chiefs were saddled with a six-point handicap in NFL odds but by the time I did my homework and decided upon which teams would be included in my Week 8 NFL picks it was already Wednesday and that six was long gone and hard to find. The number had spiked to the critical number of seven and I was determined to get off the touchdown and back onto the six even if I had to buy my way down.
The line on this hasn't moved much since Wednesday. If you're a dog man then you should be shopping at 5Dimes.com because they are consistently shading the favorites and giving those punters who like the underdogs a better shake than most offshores. 5Dimes.com is one of the few offshores currently dealing the Rams at +7 ½ (-130) and that hook may well be worth the extra money if this one is decided by a touchdown.
Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets -2 ½ (-130)
Here's another line that I would have been wise to grab Monday morning if I had stayed up all night and done my research for the Week 8 NFL slate. But seriously, I'm burned out after a day of watching football and my bed sounds like a much better idea on a Sunday night than crunching numbers until Monday morning. The NFL odds opened with the Jets -2 ½ and that has nudged to the most critical number in football, the fabled field goal point spread. I was forced to buy it down and you will too if you like New York in this spot as all the offshores I've checked are rock solid on three.
Movers & Shakers
Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers
The defending Super Bowl champs were stunned last week in St. Louis and the oddsmakers put out a rather surprisingly mild point spread considering that the public perception should be that the Seahawks are loaded for bear (or more appropriately - panther) this week. The NFL odds on Seattle to start were -3 but that number was vaporized as soon as it hit the street and we are now looking at -5 ½ across the board except for Bovada that is even more bullish on the Seahawks and has hung a -6 on the visitors.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Big time steam coming across on the Dolphins as the Fish opened as four-point traveling favorites but that line has spiked to as high as seven in places like - you guessed it - 5Dimes that is among a few brave souls begging their customers to bet the hapless Jags fresh off their first win of the season. Most offshores are dealing the Dolphins at -6 but there are a few 5 ½ 's out there if you're intent on betting Miami in your NFL picks.
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
Belichick's Boys have had 10 days to prepare for this one after narrowly defeating the Jets 27-25 on Thursday night of Week 7 as 9 ½-point home chalk. The oddsmakers cast the Pats as seven-point favorites over the visiting Bears but that number is down to 5 ½ in virtually all the offshores but I do see Bovada standing strong at New England -7 (+115), inviting those punters who are inclined to grab the points with Chicago to lay their money down.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburg Steelers
The oddsmakers decided that the NFL odds on Andrew Luck and his colorful Colts would be a slight one-point favorite in Pittsburgh. However, the public is lovin' Indy and this number has shot to Colts-3 ½ in all the offshores I reviewed on Saturday morning. Don't be surprised if you see a Indianapolis - 4 in NFL odds by kickoff.