Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 10 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.
Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week.
Chiefs vs. Bills - Total (42)
I am anticipating a defensive battle in this one because both teams boast stout defenses and neither side has a quarterback that is likely to launch a withering aerial assault resulting in plenty of crooked numbers. This should be a test of defensive wills with plenty of ground attack to chew up the clock.
As far as who wins and who loses - who knows?! The Chiefs are clearly the better club but they may be playing just a bit over their heads while the Bills have a two game winning streak going and have had two weeks to rest their weary bones in anticipation of this showdown with KC. The NFL odds on this one are giving favorite status to the Chiefs but only harnessing them with a one-point handicap. I'm staying far away from the side in my NFL picks but the total is another matter entirely.
The total in NFL odds opened up at 43 and dropped fairly quickly to 42 where it has remained rock solid and market wise. Virtually all of the offshores are uniform on this number with the lone exception being Heritage hanging a 41 ½ which indicates this total could drop even lower by game time. It appears we are on the right side here but by late afternoon on Sunday we will know for sure.
Dolphins vs. Lions (-2 ½ -120)
The Lions are getting healthy and have had two weeks to prepare for this one after playing a 9:30 AM ET game two Sundays ago across the pond. I realize on the West Coast that game came way too early but for East Coast guys like me I could think of nothing finer to accompany my Bloody Mary brunch than an NFL game. The Lions stole a narrow 22-21 victory over the Falcons and trekked out of England in command of the NFC North.
Detroit has home field advantage over the upstart Dolphins on Sunday and opened as two-point favorites in NFL odds but that has clicked ever so slightly up as they have been holding steady as 2 ½ point favorites at sportsbooks like BetOnline since early in the week. The only major offshore sportsbook that has deviated would be Bovada shading the Lions as three-point favorites. Seems we got a decent enough line here as we are below the infamous field goal which decides so many games and can make or break you in your NFL picks on any given Sunday.
Rams (+8) vs. Cardinals
This line opened with the Cardinals installed as 7 ½ point favorites and by the time I did my homework and locked onto the Rams as one of my three NFL picks of the week I noticed 5Dimes.com was shading the favorite and offering a line of eight in their NFL odds. I quickly snatched that up and was curious as to which way the wind would blow on this one.
Well it appears that the squares, the sharps or a combination of both agree with me as the Cards are now down to 6 ½ in most offshore shops and that always gives us solace knowing we exploited a weak number. Well, they still need to play the game and getting eight points versus six-and-a-half won't mean much of anything if the Rams get blown out but as of this writing we're happy to have the extra 1 ½ points as part of our NFL picks on Sunday.