How have the NFL odds shifted in some key matchups from their openers to late in the week? Swinger gives you a clearer picture of what numbers you should be getting in your Week 6 NFL picks.
Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR and below are the four top selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday.
Steelers (+2) vs. Browns
The NFL odds on this one opened up as the Browns being installed as two-point betting favorites. I immediately leapt at the opportunity to grab the points and the better team which in my mind is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This line has dropped to as low as a pick at offshores like 5Dimes.com but it is generally being offered as the Browns -1. Looks like I got an extra point by being early to the party.
Jaguars (+6) vs. Titans
The Jags are 0-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS this season but eventually they have to win...or at least cover the number right? Well, if they don't do it this week they might as well cancel the season because the Titans scare nobody. This game opened up as Titans -6 in NFL odds and I jumped on the other side, backing the winless Jags. The line has not moved one iota and is not being offered by many offshores as of this late writing.
Lions vs. Vikings (+1 ½)
When the NFL odds were revealed early Monday morning the homegrown Vikings were getting a field goal over the visiting Lions but by the time I included Minny as one of my Week 6 NFL picks it was Wednesday and that line had tumbled by a point-and-a-half, thus Minnesota + 1 ½ was the line I got. But lo and behold those Vikes have gone from chumps to champs in the eyes of the oddsmakers and are now a one-point favorite. Once again, if you get in early it can make a big difference as it did here.
Redskins (+3 ½) vs. Cardinals
The Redskins are my big play of the week and it appears that I may be the only one as enthusiastic about Washington playing a banged up Arizona squad that could very well be starting their third-string rookie quarterback when they host the 'Skins on Sunday. I eagerly grabbed Washington + 3 ½ and that number has not wavered. No harm, no foul on getting the early line here.
Movers & Shakers
Broncos vs. Jets
Man oh man, talk about square biz, it looks like the public and the sharps are lining up on the Broncos because the high-octane offense was originally saddled as six-point road favorites but that number has spiked to as high as -10 at 5Dimes.com and as low as 8 ½ at shops like Pinnacle.com. But the magic number of six is long gone and nowhere to be found.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
5Dimes.com continues to make their favorites a little chalkier than everyone else and in this case they have the World Champion Seahawks as a 9 ½-point home favorite while many of the other offshores like Bet365.com are dealing the Hawks as low as 7 ½ in NFL odds. It looks like the steam is favoring the Boyz to hang around in this one.
49'ers vs. Rams
The Niners opened as four-point road favorites but that line has been reduced as the sharps look to be getting down on the home dog in this one. St. Louis has attracted much of the betting action and are now getting just a field goal against a team that could be playing in the Super Bowl this February.
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