Late NFL Odds Movement Adds Value for Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, December 20, 2014 1:11 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014 1:11 PM UTC

Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 16 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.

Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week. Let's see where these picks are in terms of the NFL odds for Week 16 and let's keep our fingers crossed that like last week we go 3-0 one-more-time!.


Vikings (+7 ½ -135 for 4 units) vs. Dolphins
I feel like my wife after she waited for the big sale and finally got the dress she'd been eyeballing for the past several weeks. However, all is not well until she gets it home, tries it on and makes sure it looks as good on her in the bright sobering light of home as it did in the muted settings of the dressing room. In other words, yeah I copped a great line on the Vikings earlier this week but it will do me no damn good if they don't cash as one of my NFL picks.

As of this writing the only major book hanging NFL odds of on the Vikings plus seven and a hook can be found at who will make you pay -150 if indeed you want Minnesota + 7 ½. However, pretty much stands alone as all the others have seen the Minnesota action drive their number to as low as -6 in the NFL odds they are offering.


Falcons vs. Saints (-5 ½ for 3 units)
Once again I ain't complainin' about my number on the Saints because the early bird gets the worm. If you waited until the weekend to study up and do your homework then all I can say is that you have waited too long. Just like I tell my teenage daughter that she has to get those school projects done early to which she invariably shrugs her shoulders and rolls her big blue eyes...until the night before it is actually due and then Daddy is the smartest man in the world as long as I'm helping her.

Here we have the home favorite Saints under the all-important number of six on Tuesday but this weekend the NFL odds being hung are all between six and seven. If you've been around the NFL handicapping game for more than a minute then you understand how critical numbers like three, six and seven can be. I will take my Saints - 5 ½ and be quite proud I did my homework early in the week. But then again, if New Orleans doesn't cash as one of my three NFL picks this week then so much for early due diligence.


Chiefs vs. Steelers (-3 for 5 units) **MAX PLAY
If you go to my Week 16 Bust Your Bookie article and listen to the short podcast in which I wax prosaic on the splendor that is my Pick of the Year then you fully understand just how much I like (like is a bit of an understatement) the Steelers in this spot. This is not only a rare maximum play for me but a self-described POY. I was more than elated when I caught this number dropping in the NFL odds from an opener of Pittsburgh -3 ½ to a much more palatable -3.

However, imagine my chagrin when I perused the NFL odds this weekend and found there are several books dealing Pittsburgh - 2 ½! Sure you will have to pay -130 to slip on under the magic number of three so I guess it's not a true -2 ½ as you can buy off the 3 at virtually any sportsbook for an additional twenty-cent vig. I've got to say I feel much more comfortable when the NFL odds on my NFL picks are going the other way. That being said, the Steelers are still a lock to scalp the Chiefs!

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