Late NFL Odds Movement Adds Value for Your Week 15 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, December 13, 2014 2:21 PM GMT

Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 15 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.

Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week. Let's see where these picks are in terms of the NFL odds for Week 15.

                                                                                        

Total (Under 42 ½ for 4 units) - Buccaneers vs. Panthers
I jumped on this when the news of Cam "Crash" Newton's car accident broke and though I am loathe to prosper from another's misery. I don't mind exploiting an angle if the opportunity presents itself. While that may sound a bit hypocritical I do know that Derek Anderson is a probable start for Sunday's game replacing the injured Cam Newton and that's good news for all you low players.

As of this writing the NFL odds are telling me that all the major offshore books are dealing a solid 41. Now that is significant not only because it is down 1 ½ points from whence I advised a play on the 'under' but the number 42 can be crucial as it equals six touchdowns exactly.

As stated in my Bust Your Bookie Week 15 article, Carolina and Tampa Bay sport the 23rd and 28th ranked offenses respectively in terms of points scored. Tampa Bay has gone 'under' in six of their last seven contests and Derek Anderson will be asked to run the offense like he's driving a '73 Dodge Dart - no sharp turns, no sudden stops and no quick acceleration. Just steady as she goes..and no mistakes!

The 4-8 Panthers are amazingly still in the hunt for a division title due to the odious nature of their competition in the NFC South and are viewing this game as a must win. The Cats will take great pains to limit turnovers and keep Anderson navigating a ground and pound game plan while the Bucs don't do much of anything offensively that would preclude you from betting 'under' in this one.

 

Packers vs. Bills (+4 ½ for 3 units)
The NFL odds on this contest opened at Green Bay -5 ½ but that wasn't hung for much more than the time it takes to have a cup of coffee. By the time I zeroed in on this the line had dropped to 4 ½ and I was unfazed because anything north of the crucial number four looks fine to me (of course this game will fall on five).

As of this writing the NFL odds are serving up primarily 4's so we're getting an extra half point at the time of this writing. However, Bovada is standing strong at the opener of 5 ½ while all the other books are dealing -4 and -4 ½.

I realize the Packers are the darling of everyone's power rankings but they faded big time in the second half of Monday night's game against the Falcons but ultimately hung on for the victory. Buffalo is no joke this year and boasts the 5th and 8th ranked pass and rush defense respectively. I believe this one will stay close and invite you to include it in your NFL picks.

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49’ers (+10 ½ for 4 units) vs. Seahawks
We caught this one early enough to get that extra half point on what could be an all-important ten. You will notice 5Dimes still dealing Seattle -10 ½ but you will have to pay a 30 cent vig for the privilege. The majority of the other sportsbooks are pegging the defending World Champion Seahawks at either 9 or 9 ½ depending upon where you shop.

Perhaps I am delusional but I still believe the Niners can be potent once they put it all together. Regardless, they shouldn't be double digit dogs to anyone which is why they are included in my NFL picks for Week 15.

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