Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top four NFL picks featured in his Week 14 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.
Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the four selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week. Let's see where these picks are in terms of the NFL odds for Week 14.
Total (Over 47 for 2 units) - Steelers vs. Bengals
Last week I jumped aboard the Steelers/Saints bandwagon and looked for a whole lot of crooked numbers. I wasn't disappointed as those teams combined for 67 points and it was an easy cash as one of my NFL picks. This week the Pittsburgh total is not quite as high as the 53 found in Week 13 but then again the Bengals look to provide a sterner defensive test.
Earlier in the week we dipped our toes tepidly into the high side for a mere two units understanding that the NFL odds makers have tagged this total at 47 and the Bengals could continue their stingy defensive ways. But we believe the Steelers offense will roll while the Cats will get their share of points as well. Apparently the NFL betting public is unconvinced of either because the odds on this one are a solid 47 across the board as of this late writing.
Texans (-5 for 3 units) vs. Jaguars
This has all the markings of a Joe Q. Public play and I happen to be on it. I'm not proud of backing road favorites but in this case, and in the case of my other square biz play the 49'ers, I can't help but believe the public will be right. I grabbed Houston -5 in NFL odds early and I'm not sorry I did. Predictably the NFL odds have inched higher and this game is being dealt at Houston -6 pretty much across the board with the notable exception of 5Dimes.com who customarily leads the way with higher lines on the chalk thereby providing value on the underdogs.
Chiefs (+ 1 ½ for 5 units MAX PLAY) vs. Cardinals
This is the granddaddy of all my NFL picks this week and I highly doubt the negligible point spread will matter a whit regardless of which team ultimately ends up victorious. I am all-in on the Chiefs and it appears as though plenty of money has poured in on the visitors since my bold proclamation.
The Chiefs have gone from small underdogs to small favorites. Not that I believe a point in either direction will change the outcome of an ATS cover but I sure as hell would rather be getting a point-and-a-half than laying it. Offshores markets have the Chiefs solidly ensconced as one-point road favorites as of this late writing.
49'ers (-8 for 4 units) vs. Raiders
The travelin' Niners opened as seven-point favorites but before I could get a piece of that they had risen to eight. Now I'm not averse to buying a full point if need be so that is exactly what I did here when I bought this one down to San Francisco -7 (-130). Of course I have to pay the extra juice but if this game does land on a touchdown then I will be pushing instead of crying.
As of this writing it appears neither the public nor the sharps are particularly fond of this one and the line has stagnated at 49'ers -8. That's alright by me as the Raiders looked like a team that had called it a season last week after getting trounced 52-0 by the Rams. Look for the Niners to feast...finally!