Late NFL Odds Movement Adds Value for Your Week 13 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, November 29, 2014 3:06 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014 3:06 PM UTC

Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 13 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.

Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Bust Your Bookie" and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week. Let's see where these picks are in terms of the NFL odds for Week 13.


Chargers vs. Ravens (-5 ½ for 4 units)
The opening NFL odds that were dealt on this game favored the Ravens -4 ½ which would have been an immediate cue to someone like me, who is leery of all critical numbers with a hook when playing the chalk, to lay the extra vig and buy those Ravens down to minus four.  However, by the time I got to doing my homework that 4 ½ had spiked to 5 ½ which made me shave a maximum five-unit play on Baltimore down to a four-unit job.  I took solace in the fact that it was still below six or the magic number of seven so the Ravens were still a viable selection as one of my NFL picks.

As of this writing the line has continued to rise with the Ravens now being tagged as high as seven-point favorites in NFL odds at offshore sportsbooks like 5Dimes. However, if you do decide to go shopping and you are siding with the boys from Baltimore then you can certainly do better as there are many books offering either 6 or 6 ½ which could be the difference between a win and a push. Reports from Las Vegas are that Baltimore is attracting 73% of the action.


Saints vs. Steelers Total - (Over 53 for 3 units)  
When I locked on to this total the NFL odds being posted had this at 53, a sharp uptick from the opening of 51 dealt very early in the week.  I surmised that two premier quarterbacks commandeering their respective aerial assaults against weak defenses was a terrific recipe for plenty of crooked numbers. Apparently I wasn't the only one thinking this way as this total has vaulted all the way from 51 to where it currently sits at 54 ½ at shops like

While I'm not crazy about betting over a big number like 53 I do believe that going high still has plenty of value until it hits 55 which is a combination of seven TD's and a pair of field goals. 


Panthers vs. VikingsTotal (Under 43 ½ for 4 units)
This total initially offered in most shops on this game was 43 but I found a willing dance partner in 5Dimes that would give me that extra hook so I took advantage and made this a four-unit play as one of my NFL picks.  I am happy to report that this total has inched downward since I declared my love for this 'under" play on Wednesday afternoon. 

If you have not made up your betting mind and care to peruse the NFL odds being offered then you will find this total is now at 42 in many offshores which can be a critical number when playing totals in the NFL.  Using the "new math", of which I am quite proficient, the number 42 is divisible by seven exactly six times which means that if these teams combine for six TD's I still win while all those who are late to the party will get a push in this one.  Lesson of the Day: It pays to get down early if you know what you're doing.

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