Late NFL Odds Movement Adds Value for Your Week 12 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, November 22, 2014 6:11 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014 6:11 PM UTC

Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 12 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.

Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week. Let's see where these picks are in terms of the NFL odds for Week 12.

Total 50 ½ - Jaguars vs. Colts (3 units)
The very early number on this game was 48 but by the time it took you to have your first cup of morning coffee it was adjusted almost immediately to 50 ½ . When Tuesday afternoon rolled around I was diligently researching for my Week 12 NFL picks and took a gander at a number that I felt, and still feel, is a tad too high. Apparently there is little emotion and little action on this total because here I sit on Saturday and the total has not moved one iota.

That works for me because I still feel the Jags will try to run on a very susceptible Colts defense rather than try to trade air strikes with Andrew Luck. Denard Robinson has averaged 4.8 yards per carry for the Jags this season and he would probably be getting more opportunities to run the rock if Jacksonville wasn't forced to abandon their rushing attack and go to the pass so often. That of course could very well be the case in this game but the Colts run stop unit is so anemic that I believe Robinson will be the workhorse for the Jags and the more ground-and-pound we see the faster the clock ticks.

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Lions (+7 ½ -120) vs. Patriots
Here again we have a scenario in my NFL picks that has not changed since I rendered my article on Tuesday afternoon. The visiting Lions are still getting that hook on the critical number of seven at Sure I am paying an extra ten-percent but I'll pay it all day long to get over that touchdown hump. In most other shops the number is stuck at seven but of course you have the option of buying every half point for an extra shot of vigorish. While I wouldn't advise buying points on every number, I certainly am inclined to move the needle on 3's, 4's,6's and 7's. I believe the Lions will hang and bang with Tom Terrific and company courtesy of their top rated defense while being able to muster points of their own. This will be no picnic but the way the Patriots have been decimating the competition recently, it's no wonder why this line is as inflated as it is. Public perception is everything but that doesn't mean perception always aligns with reality. Yeah man, I'm deep.

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Redskins vs. 49'ers (-9)
At last we have a little NFL odds movement on one of my selections for this week. Yes, the 49'ers are getting some love from the betting public and this number has now risen to ten. While I'm not as obsessed about ten being as crucial and critical a number as the other previously listed there are more than a few games that are decided by a touchdown combined with a field goal so for all of the Swinging Johnson acolytes who hopped on the Niners early, I salute you and you have been rewarded!

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