Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted regarding his top three NFL picks featured in his Week 11 Bust Your Bookie article from earlier this week.
Which Way Have My Top NFL Picks Moved?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR called "Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie" and below are the three selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday of this week. Let's see where these picks are in terms of the NFL odds for Week 11.
Total 46 - Falcons vs. Panthers (5 Unit MAX PLAY)
This is the grand daddy of all my Week 11 NFL picks and I am supremely confident that when time expires at the Bank of America Stadium on Sunday we will be rollin' in the dough. Due to the fact I research all my NFL plays on Tuesday afternoons oftentimes I am able to take advantage of what I perceive to be a weak number at a reputable sportsbook and Pinnacle.com was hanging one of the most appealing (and lowest for that matter) numbers on the board. I plucked a 46 out of the fold while virtually all of the majors were offering 46 ½ and 47's in their NFL odds.
As of this writing the total on this game has remained pretty much steadfast though it has climbed a half click to 46 ½ at Pinny and is now 47 across the board at all the majors. I'm thinking this is merely a case of the public's penchant for routinely playing overs as there has been no marked movement to speak of at this time.
Vikings vs. Bears -3 at Bovada (2 Units)
The Bears opened as 4 ½ point favorites in NFL odds and when I plucked them falling to three-point favorites I was obviously relieved to get them at this often critical number. Laying 4 ½ would have made this game a pass for me but understanding that the Bears will be loaded for Vikings (did you see what I did there?) I decided to eschew public opinion who appear to be fading Chicago, as opposed to backing Minnesota, and grab a spectacularly underperforming team against a club playing a bit above its head.
Fast forward to Saturday morning and it looks like the public is continuing to bury the Vikings in their NFL picks. The line has fallen to 2 ½ in many shops and I must say this is giving me cause for pause. Normally I would advise going back to the well and betting the Bears at an even better number but because this was only a two-unit play to begin with I will hold tight and be content with a push if Chicago wins by three and not bitch and moan that I didn't grab the deuce-and-a-hook. Alright, I may bitch but I vow not to moan.
Raiders vs. Chargers -9 ½ -120 buying a ½ point (4 units)
By the time I got around to pegging the Chargers as one of my highlight plays of the NFL's Week 11 this line had already spiraled upwards from eight to 10. Because I have an aversion to pushing on critical and semi-critical numbers, of which 10 falls into the latter category, I paid the extra juice and bought the Bolts down to 9 ½ . I did it begrudgingly because I wished I had pounced on the opening round of NFL odds the books were hanging but alas, Tuesday morning came too late yet I remained confident that San Diego would win this California clash by double digits so no worries.
It turns out this early season Cinderella story that has hit the skids recently are everyone's darling this week now rocketing from an eight point home favorite to as high as -11 ½ at 5Dimes.com. This is either a fade on the Raiders or utter resolve that the Chargers will rebound to their early success off a bye week against a woeful team that will have to trade aerial touchdowns with Phillip Rivers in order to compete because they sure as hell can't run the ball. I'm digging this bet even more now that everyone is jumping on the Bolts and laying bad numbers. Hopefully all the Bolts backers will cash regardless of the line they got but if this one is close to the number the NFL odds are in my favor.