Last Preseason Opportunity To Profit - Fearless Game-by-Game ATS Predictions

San Francisco 49ers teammates celebrating

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, August 30, 2016 4:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2016 4:30 PM UTC

In this column, we sift through the NFL odds board and serve up NFL picks with the best betting lines available for each and every game in week 4 of the NFL preseason. Check it out.

Preseason Week 3 Recap
Dress rehearsal week was a bit of a gong show as 14 out of 16 games weren’t even close, with victories of five points or more. The only games that resulted in a close score were the Giants winning 21-20 over the Jets the Patriots’ 19-17 win over the Panthers on the road. Many were complete and utter blowouts. Twelve to be exact that were totally and utterly lopsided on the scoreboard. As a result, our NFL picks did take a beating. Ouch.


NIKKI’s Game-by-Game Record in Preseason Betting, Week 1 to Week 3
SU 25-23
ATS 21-23-1*
TOTAL 22-18-3*
*(Two games omitted in week 1 for ATS and Total predictions, no odds available at the time of writing)

In any event, it’s a brand new week. The ultimate week of the preseason and our last chance to get a feel for the 32 NFL teams ahead of the regular season. So let’s get cracking.


NFL Wednesday, August 31st

Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs had a field day with the Browns last week. It’s unlikely they’ll enjoy a similar convincing account in their preseason finale at home to the Redskins, but we do fancy the SU win nevertheless. Washington has been keeping their games close-ish in winning and losing for the most part and riding a two-game winning streak into the last week of preparations.


Free NFL Picks: Redskins +3 -110 
Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill

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NFL Thursday, September 1

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
The Patriots are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak in the preseason, including a 19-17 win over the Panthers in which they covered as the 2.5-point road underdogs. Once again, the Patriots are matched as the 2.5-point puppies on the road. Against the Giants, though? Who were abysmal in the dress rehearsal week despite winning narrowly and certainly not down to anything the first-string offense did. They did nothing. The Patriots plus the points are just too good to pass up.


Free NFL Picks: Patriots +2.5 +102 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Jets are coming off a narrow loss to the Giants in week 3 but Todd Bowles must be pleased about his starters who did a wonderful job to stifle the G-men in the first half. The Eagles are riding a three-game winning streak into the final week of the preseason with Sam Bradford doing his best to put his case for the starting job forward. Chase Weintz  is questionable for the ultimate exhibition this Thursday giving Sam Bradford one last chance to convince the organisation to rest their campaign on his veteran shoulders.


Free NFL Picks: Eagles -3.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010812, "sportsbooksIds":[227,93,19,999996,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Jaguars are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Bengals in week 3 of the preseason. It marked their first win this month and should send them into Thursday’s clash with the Falcons with momentum. The downside they only just played this Sunday. They have barely four days to prepare for this game. The Falcons have the advantage of playing on Thursday last week, giving them a full week of preparation after a woeful 17-6 loss to the Dolphins. Still, there were many worrying signs in week 3, not to mention Julio Jones succumbing to injury. How much is Dan Quinn going to risk this week remains to be seen but that’s enough to make laying 3.5 points with the Falcons risky.


Free NFL Picks: Jaguars 3.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010815, "sportsbooksIds":[1275,93,999996,123,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a good win over the Falcons and will look to finish their preparations on a positive note. They have the advantage of a full week’s rest having played last Thursday. The Titans, meanwhile, are after an upset over the Raiders at the Coliseum on Saturday, a positive result that raised a few eyebrows. Might the Titans be underrated? In any event, it’s a quick turnaround and a long trek from Oakland to Miami and that makes the Dolphins the most attractive bet on the spread.


Free NFL Picks: Dolphins -3 +100
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010819, "sportsbooksIds":[227,19,93,198,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
The Bills are coming off a lost to the Redskins in the nation’s capital but Rex Ryan rested most of his starters. The Lions were feeble in a 30-9 blowout to the Ravens at the M&T Stadium. How the Lions can be favoured by a field goal on the heels of that performance beggars belief. The Bills have their own issues but they could keep this game closer than the NFL odds would have it.


Free NFL Picks: Bills +3 +100 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010813, "sportsbooksIds":[93,169,123,999996,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals
So the Bengals lost to the Jaguars in the end but they led for the most part and looked good behind their starters. The downside: it’s a quick turnaround for the preseason home finale against the Colts. Same cannot be said of the Colts, who were torched by the Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium. So much so, many are calling them a mess. That doesn’t bode well for week 4, never mind the regular season. Depth is a problem it seems and that has us tipping the scale towards the hosts despite the short week.


Free NFL Picks: Bengals -3.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
The Steelers torched the Saints while the Panthers laboured in a 19-17 defeat to the Patriots at home. Contrasting those accounts may be, week 4 is an entirely different ball game. Mike Tomlin is most likely to rest his starters and without Big Ben running the offense the Steelers aren’t as explosive. The Panthers are sure to take a similar approach. This could be a bit of a grinder and that has us leaning towards the Steelers plus the points.


Free NFL Picks: Steelers +4 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints
Ravens have been going about their business quietly in the preseason and early prognosis is quite positive. They are undefeated through three games and will look to finish on a positive note. The Saints have looked middling at best on both sides of the ball and last week’s defeat to the Saints does little to inspire any confidence. Bookmakers seem to think otherwise as they hang the Saints on anywhere from -3 to -3.5, depending on your choice sportsbook.


Free NFL Picks: Ravens +3.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns
How is it the Browns are field goal favourites in this game? Granted the Bears do leave much to be desired after their woeful preseason account but that's not enough reason to encourage laying that many points with the Browns.

Update: So as the week continues the Browns are bet up to -6 favourites? Why? Because Hue Jackson is going to do what John Fox isn’t, play his starters for a stretch? A drive or two, say? Keep in mind Brian Hoyer will be back in the house. Remember him? Only the guy that led the Browns to a 7-4 SU season and who was nothing but a professional in the wake of Manziel Mania? He’s the backup for the Bears now and might fancy showing up the Browns. Just saying, six points is a lot to lay with the anemic Browns offense that currently occupies a spot in the basement of the league’s offensive stats. Indeed, both these teams hover in obscurity, making this line a touch ridiculous. We’ll see, but we’re taking the points.


Free NFL Picks: Bears +6
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010807, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,999991,1096,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Packers are 3-0 SU and ATS in the preseason largely down to solid backup play. That’s an encouraging sign for any team. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 1-2 SU in the preseason after a couple of narrow losses and their first win last week. It’s a tossup between these two teams, particularly when the venue is Arrowhead. That said, 3.5 points is a lot to be giving so we’re happy to lap them up with the Packers.


Free NFL Picks: Packers +4 -110
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have looked really good in the preseason with wins on the road and at home, the latter of which includes a convincing win over the Chargers in their brand new Stadium. U.S. Bank Stadium is set to provide the backdrop for their preseason finale and if what we’ve seen so far it should be hopping once again as the Vikings close out their preparations on a high note.


Free NFL Picks: Vikings -3.5 -115 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010827, "sportsbooksIds":[1275,19,169,999996,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Texans were solid on both sides of the ball in their victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. It’s a quick turnaround for their final preseason game at the AT&T Stadium and that could be a factor against them. That said, the Cowboys are in flux without Romo at quarterback and that is something the Texans could very well capitalise on. Cowboys are down to Dak Prescott, who looks to be the likely starter in week 1 of the season. Jason Garrett needs to get Prescott ready for the real deal but must be mindful not to risk him overly, so there’s a balancing act to consider here. After all, there’s still the issue of a backup to sort. With all that uncertainty the Texans look to be the smart NFL pick.


Free NFL Picks: Texans -1 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010810, "sportsbooksIds":[238,123,180,999991,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals
After last week’s near debacle in Houston, -4 seems a lot to be laying with the Cardinals don’t you think? The Cards are winless and coverless in the preseason. By contrast, the Broncos are 2-1 SU and ATS and look to be the better choice on our NFL picks, particularly seeing as there is still a bit of a quarterback competition on the cards which should provide incentive.


Free NFL Picks: Broncos +4 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010805, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,19,123,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders
The Seahawks are riding a two-game winning streak into the final week of exhibition games. Overall, they are 2-1 SU and ATS. The Raiders were stunned by the Titans last week at the Coliseum and slip to 1-2 SU and ATS in the preseason. In spite of the contrasting fortunes of both teams, bookmakers hang the Raiders as the -2 home chalk. Whenever there are points to be had with the Seahawks, it demands a bite.


Free NFL Picks: Seahawks +2 -106 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010811, "sportsbooksIds":[238,180,139,123,19], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers
The controversy surrounding Kaepernick on and off the field could prove a distraction for the Niners in their final preseason effort. Then again, it could propel the maligned quarterback to shut up and put up. He didn’t do enough in week 3’s home loss to the Packers and should probably get more playing time on Thursday. Chargers return home from a week 3 loss to Minnesota on Saturday. A shorter week for the Chargers with travel could tip the edge towards their in-state rivals who make the short trek from San Fran.


Free NFL Picks: Niners +3 -120 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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