Last-Minute Picks In Week 16 Include Chargers, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings  players in action

Friday, December 23, 2016 3:07 PM GMT

Look for San Diego and Minnesota to cover their spreads in NFL Week 16 action. But totals in the Broncos-Chiefs and Dolphins-Bills division clashes could offer the best last-minute value.

Denver Broncos At Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (19.6) and Broncos (18.4) each send out Top-10 scoring defenses. Their consistency is what sets the two apart from the rest of the NFL's elite units. Both have allowed just two opponents to put up more points than they average entering a game all season. Only the Seahawks match that feat. The winner of this game Sunday night may not reach 20 points.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under' 37.5

Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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San Diego Chargers At Cleveland Browns

The Browns are historically bad. One has to go back to 2011 to find a team with an average scoring margin of -13 or less entering Week 16. The offense is misfiring, scoring 13 points or fewer in its last six games. And the defense ... well, it has allowed 23 points or more in every game this year. Cleveland has covered three spreads all year, each coming in five contests against offenses scoring fewer than 19 points per game. The Chargers put up 26.1 per contest, third most in the league. It may take a Christmas miracle for the Browns to keep up in this Saturday matchup.

NFL Free Pick: Chargers -5

Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Miami Dolphins At Buffalo Bills

Expect the Bills offense to light up the scoreboard. We hit on this trend last week and are going back to the well here: Buffalo averages 32.0 points per game in the six it's kicked off as a favorite in the betting market. Taking advantage of poorer defenses, Rex Ryan's squad has put 25 or more in each. The Dolphins yield 22.5 points per game since Week 7. Miami, meanwhile, can score in bunches against poor units as well. It has squared off against teams allowing 20 points or more six times in 2016, scoring 24 or more in each. The 'over' is 7-1 in the Dolphins' last eight games. This division clash may be closer to 50 points than 40.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 42

Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The Packers are the play-on team currently, but a touchdown spread is too rich for this NFC North clash Saturday. The Vikings may have trouble scoring points, but the defense keeps them in every game. They've lost only three contests by more than 6 points this year. Moreover, the unit has kept Aaron Rodgers in check the last two times out. The former MVP passed for just 213 and 212 yards in leading the Pack to 13 and 14 points, respectively, against Minnesota.

NFL Free Pick: Vikings +7

Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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