Last Minute Picks For Super Bowl LI

Jay Pryce

Sunday, February 5, 2017 5:29 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 5, 2017 5:29 PM UTC

Super Bowl 51 is hours away. It's crunch time! Cash on the NFL's biggest game with these last-minute picks that you must move on right now. Read on as expert capper Jay Pryce breaks it down for you short and sweet.

ATS Pick

Tom Brady can’t be rattled. Simple as that. He will lead the Patriots to victory. The Falcons have ramped up their blitz package considerably in the playoffs, even flustering the usually steely Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship win over the Packers. Overall, they’ve applied pressure on 40.4 percent of dropbacks in the postseason, which has helped boost the confidence of a mediocre unit. Brady’s numbers against the blitz are astonishing. He tossed for 838 yards, 11 TDs, and zero INTs, on 61 of 99 passes when pressured in 2016, registering a 125.7 passer rating, tops in the NFL. Good luck coach Dan Quinn.

Free NFL PickPatriots -3Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Total Pick

Atlanta and New England present a potential high-octane championship game. They both roll out very efficient offenses. The Falcons score .548 points per play (1st in the NFL), while the Patriots put up .428 per snap (3rd). At the time of writing, the betting market is respecting the two units with a 59 over/under, the highest in Super Bowl history. Our initial reaction was to jump on the OVER, but after handicapping the game further the UNDER provides the best value.

One of these two teams will hit 30 points—take that to the bank. Whether the loser meets this threshold is debatable. Seven Super Bowls have pitted two equally efficient offenses or better. Six of them went OVER the total, but the lines were much lower. The average combined score in each is 56.8 points. Our prediction: Patriots: 31-24.

Free NFL PickUnder 58*Best Line Offered: at BetPhoenix

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Top Prop: Tom Brady O36.5 Passing Attempts

Tom Brady has attempted 37 passes or more in half of his 14 games in 2016; all but one has occurred since Week 10. New England's short passing attack is their bread and butter, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel is exploiting it late. The increase is fueled by the emergence of WR Chris Hogan and a healthier RB Dion Lewis, which has allowed Brady to run no-huddle more often. They’ve gone to the quick offense 17 times in two playoff games after recording just 20 takes in the regular season.

There is also a nice correlation to the number of attempts Brady tosses versus weaker passing defenses. Brady attempted 33 passes or fewer in each of four games against defenses allowing one TD or less through the air entering a game. The Falcons are on the upper end of this spectrum, gifting 2.0 touchdowns per tilt via the pass headed into Super Bowl 51. Win or lose, leading or trailing, Brady is going to throw a lot.

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