Largest Totals Worth Noting for Your Week 3 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, September 26, 2015 12:23 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 26, 2015 12:23 AM UTC

Betting the 'over' was largely a success in Week 1 of the NFL season, but whether it was inflated totals or better defenses in Week 2, the 'unders' won the week in nine of 16 games. Here are three of the highest JustBet Week 3 totals on NFL odds.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers (49 at 5Dimes)
This is the Monday night game and maybe the best matchup on NFL picks of a rather bland Week 3 schedule. In one respect, I am surprised this has the highest total. The Chiefs have a pretty good defense and largely shut down Denver last Thursday until the final minutes. What Kansas City does really well is get after the quarterback as it ranks second in the NFL with eight sacks. Linebacker Justin Houston led the league with 22 in 2014 and he already has three this year. Plus the Chiefs offense isn't exactly high-powered as it's one of the more conservative units in the league because Alex Smith can't throw downfield very well. But on the other hand, I get this total because the Packers are an offensive machine at Lambeau Field. How absurd is Aaron Rodgers there? He last threw an interception at home on Dec. 12, 2012, vs. Minnesota. The last time Rodgers threw multiple interceptions at home was Oct. 24, 2010, vs. Minnesota. And Rodgers likes the bright lights of Monday Night Football. He is 4-1 in his five career appearances, completing 92 of 130 passes for 1,045 yards, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 116.3. The Packers might not have No. 1 running back Eddie Lacy due to an ankle injury, but backup James Starks is more than qualified to replace him. It shouldn't matter much. My only concern here for Green Bay is a bit of a letdown after last week's big win over Seattle. Weather will be nice on Monday night in Green Bay.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over.' It is 4-0 in the Chiefs' past four September games. It is 7-3 in Green Bay's past 10 at home.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. St. Louis Rams (48 on NFL odds)
How good can this Pittsburgh offense be? The Steelers lead the NFL in yards per game at 458.5 and are No. 3 in points at 32.0 per game. And they did that the first two weeks without arguably the best all-around running back in the NFL in Le'Veon Bell, who was suspended the first two weeks. He's back for this game. Bell was the team MVP last year, not Ben Roethlisberger or Antonio Brown, rushing 290 times for 1,361 yards and eight scores while adding 83 catches for 854 yards and three scores. I looked at some Bovada specials on Bell here at SBR. Now the Steelers have a terrific 1-2 punch at tailback in Bell and DeAngelo Williams, who was great in Bell's stead. The Rams have the best front four in football yet gave up 31 points at home in Week 1 in a win over Seattle and 24 in Week 2 in a loss at a mediocre Washington team -- we saw how mediocre in Thursday night's loss to the Giants. Opponents have completed 81 percent of their passes against the Rams, next to worst in the NFL and just one percentage point better than Detroit. That really shouldn't happen.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' Call it a hunch, but I think the Rams defense steps up at home, and the St. Louis offense is nothing special. The 'under' is 4-1-1 in the Steelers' past six.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets (45.5 on NFL picks)
The Jacksonville at New England game actually has the third-highest total at 47.5, but I touched on that game in my Week 3  largest spread picks (I'd go 'under' that total for what it's worth). This spread surprises me. It's like oddsmakers still expect that Eagles offense to break out, but Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray have been huge disappointments thus far. Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury but reportedly will play. That a good thing? He has 21 carries for 11 yards. Yep, you read that right. I could do that! That offensive line isn't very good. Now Philly goes to a Jets team that has been dynamic on defense under aggressive new head coach Todd Bowles. New York has forced 10 turnovers in wins over the Browns and Colts; the Jets had only 13 takeaways all last season. I don't think Bradford will do much because the Jets will shut down half the field with star cornerback  Darrelle Revis. So can the Eagles run the ball effectively? They sure haven't yet, averaging all of 35.0 yards per game. The weather won't be a factor in East Rutherford, N.J.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in seven of Philly's past nine vs. teams with a winning record. It is 7-3 in the Jets' past 10 overall.

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