Largest Spreads to Consider for Your Week 5 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, October 10, 2015 4:55 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 4:55 PM UTC

I went 1-2 on my biggest spread picks last week, hitting on the Jaguars +9 against Indianapolis but missing on Seattle -9.5 vs. Detroit and San Francisco +8 vs. Green Bay. Here are the Week 5 5Dimes' top NFL odds.

Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10 On NFL Odds)
This is the first NFL week of the season where we have three double-digit favorites, although I must say that 5Dimes often has larger spreads than other sites. This number is 8.5 at sites like JustBet or Bookmaker. So if you are planning to give the points, obviously you should chose one of those books. Interesting that Kansas City is such a big favorite considering both clubs are 1-3. Kansas City has lost three straight, allowing at least 31 points in each and looking worse in each as well: falling by seven to Denver, 10 in Green Bay and the 15 last week at home to Cincinnati. To be fair, those are three of the six unbeaten teams in the NFL and it would surprise few to see Green Bay and either the Broncos or Bengals in the Super Bowl (obviously New England will have a say in things). The Chiefs aren't protecting Alex Smith at all as he has been sacked an NFL-high 19 times. The Bears, meanwhile, are tied for the worst scoring defense in the NFL with these Chiefs at 31.3 points per game. Chicago QB Jay Cutler will play the second straight week through a hamstring injury but is unlikely to have his two top receivers in Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal. So expect this game to be decided by either Jamaal Charles or Matt Forte.

NFL Pick: I don't believe Chiefs should be double-digit favorites over anyone. Take the points -- although if you went for that 8.5 line I would give them. Kansas City is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 overall.  

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St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-10 In NFL Betting)
Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite entering Week 5 and looks fairly invincible at Lambeau Field, where Aaron Rodgers simply refuses to throw interceptions. Green Bay's last regular-season home loss was Week 16 of the 2013 season against Pittsburgh and Rodgers  missed that game due to injury. The Pack haven't lost a home regular-season game that Rodgers started and finished since Week 1 of 2012 against the 49ers. During the current 10-game home regular-season win streak, Green Bay has scored 383 points. That's a team record for any 10-game home span and the Kurt Warner-led Rams in 1999 and 2000 (403) and the Peyton Manning-led Broncos spanning 2012 and 2013 (399) won 10 consecutive home games while scoring as many points as the Packers have. The Rams have a pretty good defense, holding the Cardinals to just 22 points last week in handing Arizona its first loss and Pittsburgh to only 12 in Week 3. Just not sure that St. Louis can keep up offensively -- expect a large dose of rookie running back Todd Gurley, who had 146 yards on 19  carries last week vs. Arizona in only his second NFL game. Green Bay is No. 22 vs. the run but has been pretty good stopping it outside of Week 1.

NFL Pick: Give the points; thus I'd use another book and do 8.5. The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their past eight after a loss. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its past nine October games.

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New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys (-10 On NFL Picks)
This would have been one of the marquee matchups of the regular season were Tony Romo healthy and facing off against Tom Brady for perhaps the final time in their careers (doubt Brady is still around when Cowboys and Patriots play in regular season again in four more years). No two teams in the NFL these days drive the TV or betting needles more than the Patriots and Cowboys. You either love or hate them. But of course Romo remains out with a broken collarbone, as does star Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant. So now the Dallas QB is the forgettable Brandon Weeden, who has lost 10 straight starts dating to his Cleveland days, and the top receiver I suppose is Terrance Williams. Actually, one of the most effective pass-catchers on the team had been running back Lance Dunbar, who had 21 catches, but he was lost last week to a torn ACL. The heart of the Dallas defense, middle linebacker Sean Lee, suffered a concussion in Week 4 but looks like he will play. And it's the season debut of Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain off four-game suspensions. The Dallas Cowboys will need all the help they can get against a Patriots team that is well-rested off the bye week and an offense that leads the NFL in yards per game (446.3) and points per game (39.7).

NFL Pick: Patriots, but again I'd use a book that offers less than 10. The Pats are 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its past seven at home.  

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