Largest Spreads Cash In More NFL Picks in Week 10

Matthew Jordan

Friday, November 13, 2015 5:16 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 5:16 PM UTC

I have been leaning the dogs on the biggest spreads of the week this season and it has paid off for the most part. Last week I went with all favorites and lost. Let's check our NFL picks for the week.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-11.5 On NFL Odds)
I'm a bit surprised the Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't give Pack Nation another "R-E-L-A-X" declaration this week. Of course he did early last year after Green Bay started 1-2 and things turned out fine. But now the Pack have suffered back-to-back losses for the first time since the 2010 with Rodgers under center. Still, probably no reason to panic. The Packers had to travel to unbeaten Denver in Week 8 and then unbeaten Carolina last Sunday so no shame in losing those. The Green Bay offense struggled mightily against the Broncos and then for the first half against the Panthers before waking up. Coach Mike McCarthy made a move to spur things this week by naming James Starks the team's starter at running back over Eddie Lacy. The main problem in the losing streak has been an inability to convert third downs, largely because the Pack are third-and-long often because of the running game getting stuffed. The Lions might be just what the doctor ordered for the Packers. That franchise is in upheaval, having recently fired three offensive coaches, the team president and general manager. The Lions are dead last in running the ball and dead last in scoring defense. They also, incredibly, haven't won a road game in this series in 24 years.

Free NFL Pick: Green Bay. Pack haven't been as dominant at home this year as last, but are still unbeaten there and have won three of the four at Lambeau in 2015 by double digits over teams that are better than Detroit. The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record. The Pack are 4-0 ATS in their past four at home in series.

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Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-11 In NFL Betting)
This is the Monday night game. Houston comes off its bye week and finds itself just a half-game out of the AFC South lead despite a 3-5 record. Oh, and the Texans now know that first-place Indianapolis won't have star quarterback Andrew Luck for likely a month. The division is there to be had. Houston can't get any consistency going. After its first win of the year, the Texans were bombed 48-21 the next week in Atlanta. After win No. 2, the Texans were routed in Miami. Here, Houston comes off a not-that-impressive 20-6 win over Tennessee before the bye. The running game struggled vs. the Titans without Arian Foster, who is out for the season. Houston QB Brian Hoyer knows Cincinnati well from his Cleveland days; he went 2-0 vs. the Bengals as a starter there. Cincinnati is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history. The Bengals are off a mini-bye as they clobbered Cleveland on Thursday in Week 9. Andy Dalton continues to impress and has had the only game with a rating under 95.0 this season. Cincinnati went to Houston and won 22-13 last season. Keep that in mind for any other NFL picks.

Free NFL Pick: Texans cover. They healed up during the bye and Hoyer has been playing very well since re-taking the starting job. Cincinnati has covered only two of its past eight after scoring 30 points in its previous game. The Texans are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. Choose a sportsbook and lock this line now.

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New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (+7.5 For NFL Picks)
Think Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are extra motivated here to beat the team that upset the Patriots in two Super Bowls? Those two would have six Super Bowl rings instead of four but Eli Manning and Co. had a fluky-type play in each Super Bowl upset. The Patriots also have to adjust to the loss of running back Dion Lewis. He had 49 carries for 234 yards and four scores but was especially valuable as a receiver with 36 catches for 388 yards and two scores. Turnovers are likely to be the difference here. The Giants lead the NFL with a plus-12 turnover margin. The Patriots have turned it over a league-low five times but their offensive line is a mess in terms of injuries right now. That affects the NFL odds. Tom Coughlin is 5-1 in his NFL head-coaching career against Belichick. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Patriots have beaten every team in the league at least once -- except the Giants. 

Free NFL Pick: Giants. They have covered the past four meetings. 

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