Large Spreads to Offer Early Value for Week 12 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Monday, November 17, 2014 6:44 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 17, 2014 6:44 PM UTC

In this column, we're looking at three heavy favorites on week 12 NFL odds menu that we feel should cash at the cash window at these early NFL prices when all is said and done next Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 vs. Oakland Raiders +7.0
Chiefs are hot on the trot with a 7-3 SU record and 8-2 ATS record on the season, which includes an average 6.1-margin of victory. They are flush off a win over the Seattle Seahawks, laying the points as the marginal 1-point (up to 2-points at some books) favourites in a 24-20 win. A pivotal win that has them now tied with the Denver Broncos atop the AFC West and firmly inside the playoff race.

Since an 0-2 SU start on the season, which featured a shocking upset by the Titans, the Chiefs have won seven of their last eight games, five in a row – to put it in numbers: 7-1 SU and ATS record through the last eight weeks.

Although the Raiders are riding a discouraging 10-game losing streak ahead of this clash, they've punched above their weight class against the spread in recent weeks. Most recently, they lost to the Chargers 13-6 in San Diego but covered as the hefty 10-point road pups. In marked the second major cover in their last three games (covered as the 13-point pups against the Seahawks). Given these commendable covers in recent weeks, the Raiders strike a tempting pose as the 7-point pups. Consider the Chiefs are the most reliable against the spread – at least one of the most reliable this season – is it prudent to bet against them on your NFL Picks? It's a sizeable spread on one hand, but the Chiefs have been able to deal with sizeable spreads against bad teams – they beat the Jets 24-10 and the Rams 34-7, laying the respective 8-points and 7.5-points, handily. They should be able to handle the Raiders by more than a touchdown.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -7.0

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Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts -13.5
The Colts were walloped by the Patriots 42-20 on Sunday Night Primetime football, failing to come through as the 3-point home favourites. Next up for the Colts are the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars, sporting a 1-9 SU record on the season, highlighted by a three-game losing streak in which they were outscored 53-to-91, which yields an average of 12.7-margin of defeat. Jaguars are 0-5 SU on the road this season but 1-3-1 ATS with a 15.8-point margin of defeat. The last meeting between the Jaguars and Colts this season resulted in a 44-17 blowout by the Colts, all while matched as the nominal 6-point road faves.

For the second meeting between these divisional rivals bookies have practically doubled the spread. On one hand it appears absurdly large, on the other it plays right into the Colts wheelhouse: beating up on bad teams in a big way. Colts have beaten under par opposition (Titans and Jaguars) this season by no less than 24-points. Take the Colts on your NFL picks as the staggering 13.5-point faves.

NFL Picks: Colts -13.5 at Bookmaker

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Washington Redskins +8.0 vs. San Francisco 49ers -8.0
At first glance, this might appear to be a hefty spread to be giving the Niners when their offense has a tendency to stutter. But if you hang your hat on the Niners defense, which has been winning games, this NFL line seems appropriate. Consider Washington Redskins couldn't be worse if they tried. They are after a hefty 27-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which RGIII went 23-of-32 for 207 yards and 1 touchdown, two interceptions and six sacks.

By the numbers: Redskins rank 7th in passing and 16th in rushing on offense, and 9th opposing the pass and 10th opposing the rush. Put against their 3-7 SU record, those have to be the most ineffective stats in the league, leading to absolutely nothing quantifiable.  Redskins have been outscored by 52-points through ten games, which yields a 5.2-point margin of defeat. Take only the three games that featured RGIII this season, the Redskins are 0-3 SU and have been outscored 39-to-73 for a 34-point margin of defeat. That's 11.3-points per game. Niners defense will chew up RGIII and his cupcake offense to win this game in a big way. Niners as the favorite in NFL odds is the best NFL pick in this matchup.

NFL Picks: Niners -8 at BetOnline

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