Key Betting Trend Makes Redskins the NFL Pick Over Giants

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 12:38 PM GMT

If you have backed the home team with your NFL picks in the three Thursday games so far this season, you have won big, but will that betting trend continue with Giants vs. Redskins on September 25th?

Cousins' Job To Keep?
Robert Griffin III had a brilliant rookie season for the Redskins, winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. However, it appears that guy is gone for good now due to continued injury, and it sure looks like coach Jay Gruden's new offense fits backup Kirk Cousins much better than RGIII.

The Redskins dropped to 1-2 on Sunday, but it was hardly Cousins' fault. In his first start of the season, with Griffin III out at least 6-8 weeks due to a dislocated ankle, Cousins threw for a career-high 427 yards along with three touchdowns as the Redskins had 511 yards of offense at Philadelphia. Both Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 138 yards, one TD) and DeSean Jackson (five catches, 117 yards, one TD) topped 100 yards receiving. Alas, Cousins doesn't play defense and the Redskins lost 37-34. That Cousins performance followed a great game in place of Griffin III in  Week 2 against Jacksonville. Gruden already is not ruling out Cousins keeping the job the rest of the season even if RGIII returns. The coach reportedly believes Cousins is a better fit in his offense.

The Redskins had a whopping 17 players on the first injury report of this week, including nine starters. The big ones were running back Alfred Morris, Jackson, tight end Jordan Reed and defensive end/tackle Jason Hatcher. Morris and Jackson should play. Reed won't and Hatcher is questionable. Also, Washington lost cornerback DeAngelo Hall to a season-ending torn Achilles' tendon against Philly. His absence likely forces rookie Bashaud Breeland into a starting role.

 

G-Men Avoid Another 0-3 Start
New York might have saved Tom Coughlin's job on Sunday with a 30-17 home win over previously unbeaten Houston. Eli Manning had easily his best game thus far in 2014, completing 21 of 28 for 234 yards and two scores. He had two passes picked off in both losses at the Lions and home to the Cardinals. Manning's completion percentage has improved in each game in the Giants'  new West Coast offense.

Rashad Jennings was the workhorse against Houston with 34 carries for a career-high 176 yards and a touchdown. He was pretty quiet the first two games and had a huge fumble against Arizona. The Giants defense picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times and the special teams blocked a punt. The New York media claimed it might have been the Giants' best all-around game since 2012.

Manning may have to win this game as Washington ranks third in the NFL against the run at 64.7 yards per game. The Eagles, last year's rushing champions, had just 54 yards on 25 carries. Manning has won nine of his past 12 starts against Washington. He is 6-4 at FedEx Field in his career, throwing for 2,289 yards, the most of any active visiting player at the Redskins' stadium since Manning entered the NFL 10 years ago.

Injury-wise for the Giants, starting linebacker Jon Beason and rookie first-round pick and receiver Odell Beckham will almost surely sit again. Beason missed the Texans game after aggravating  an offseason toe injury in Week 2. There's a slight chance he plays Thursday. Beckham has been dealing with a hamstring injury since training camp started. Maybe he debuts in Week 5.

 

Last Season
The Giants swept the Redskins in 2013, as those who backed them with their NFL picks will remember. In Week 13 at FedEx Field, New York won 24-17. Manning threw for 235 yards and a touchdown. RGIII threw for 207 yards and a score but was sacked five times. He led the team in rushing with 88 yards on 12 carries. In Week 17 at MetLife Stadium, a 20-6 Giants win, Griffin was out injured and Cousins was not good, going 19-for-49 for 169 yards with two interceptions. Manning wasn't great, either, connecting on 10 of 24 passes for 152 yards, a TD and pick. Neither team had more than 278 yards and they combined for seven turnovers.

 

NFL Free Picks
Washington -3.5 and the 'over' 45. So basically disregard that the NFL odds underdog has covered six of the past seven meetings in this series or that the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five. Home teams have a huge advantage in these quick turnaround games. They are 21-15 on Thursdays since the NFL started playing a Thursday night game each week two years ago. This year they are  3-0, winning every game by at least 20 points.

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