Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Total Pick

Darin Zank

Saturday, November 16, 2013 7:38 PM GMT

Earlier this week we offered up a pick on Sunday night's Kansas City-Denver showdown. Now we examine the total for another free NFL pick, for what it's worth.

Chiefs-Broncos: The Number

Most NFL betting shops we consulted opened the total on this game at right around 50; there were a few 49s, and a few 51s. As of Saturday morning most sportsbooks listed the total at 49.

The Forecast for a November Night in Denver

The weather doesn't look like it will be a big factor in this game; the forecast calls for temps dipping into the 30s Sunday night, with light winds and little chance of precipitation. But those conditions can produce slippery footballs, the type that can be a bit difficult to throw, and to catch.

All in all, though, we're not expecting the weather to have much of an effect on the total on this game.

Chiefs-Broncos By the Numbers

Kansas City ranks 24th in total offense, but ninth in total defense.

On the other end of the spectrum Denver ranks No. 1 in total offense but 23rd in total defense.

The Chiefs also lead the league in sacks with 36.

Denver has allowed eight sacks in its last three games.

The Kickers

Kickers can play a big part in deciding whether a game stays UNDER or plays OVER a total. Just look at Monday night's game, in which the Tampa and Miami kickers combined to make four field goals in a game that sneaked OVER a betting odds total of 40.

Kicking at the mile-high altitude helps, but chilly temps might negate that some.

KC kicker Ryan Succop is 18-for-21 on field goals this year, with a long of 51.

Denver K Matt Prater is a perfect 12-for-12 on field goals this season, with a long of 53. 

Chiefs-Broncos Recent History

Since Manning joined Denver last year the Broncos have beaten KC twice, by scores of 17-9 and 38-3. The first game played UNDER its total of 41, while the second game pushed on the same total of 41.

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Chiefs-Broncos Betting Trends

KC is 2-7 on the OVER/UNDERS this season, as Chiefs games have averaged just 36 points.

Denver is 8-1 on the totals, as Broncos games have averaged a league-high 68 points.

Injury Update

Manning might be a bit hobbled because of a sore lower leg He doesn't move around a whole lot to begin with, but he might be even more of a statue in the pocket than usual. If KC can get some push against the Denver O-line, which is entirely possible, it could make for interesting night for Manning.

Our Take on This Total

Ultimately the total on this game should come down to how many stops KC gets on defense, if they can avoid giving up too many big plays and whether the Chiefs offense can grind out a few drives. And despite the rap on KC as having played an easy schedule, we think much of that is possible.

The Chiefs might not win this game, but they've got enough to keep it close. And we'd think a tough, close game in the cold under the lights in Denver would tend to be low-scoring. So we'll go with the UNDER 49.5 offered at Heritage for our free NFL total pick.