2022 Kansas City Chiefs Futures Odds, Picks, and Preview: Super Bowl, Win Total, and Playoff Predictions

Mike Randle

Last Updated: August 21, 2022 10:24 AM EDT • 3 min 22 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs motions from the line of scrimmage against the Cincinnati Bengals during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/ Getty Images via AFP.

With All-Pro players such as Russell Wilson and Davante Adams joining the AFC West, how will the Kansas City Chiefs fare during Patrick Mahomes' fifth season as their starting quarterback? Here are our Chiefs 2022 odds, picks, and preview.

The AFC West has started to close the gap on the Chiefs over the past few seasons, though Kansas City has been to four consecutive AFC title games. The Chiefs will need to adjust after losing key players, and the club hopes its offseason additions can continue a trend of AFC dominance.

Explosive wideout Tyreek Hill is now in Miami, leaving a huge void in Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs have added veteran wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, in addition to running back Ronald Jones to compensate for losing the six-time Pro Bowl wideout.

Kansas City will also need to contend with the NFL’s toughest schedule, as the Chiefs have widely been given the lowest projected win total. The Chiefs are laser-focused on another Super Bowl title, and they spent three of their first four draft picks on solidifying a shaky defense.

Below, we preview the 2022 season for the Kansas City Chiefs with a look at their futures odds and make our top picks (odds via FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, and BetMGM).

Kansas City Chiefs' 2022 Futures Odds

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Kansas City Chiefs 2022 Picks

Skyy Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1200 via FanDuel)
Under 10.5 wins (-105 via FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns Under 34.5 (+100 via DraftKings)
Chiefs to lose in the divisional round (+330 via DraftKings)

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1200)

Training camp buzz can often be overrated, but I love the odds on Skyy Moore winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. While a quarterback has won this award in six of the past 12 seasons, there's no dominant passing prospect from the 2022 draft. The favorite is Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, who's currently in a battle for the Steelers' No. 2 quarterback spot.

Moore is just the fifth-highest wide receiver on FanDuel's oddsboard, despite being tethered to the best quarterback of any rookie. He could earn the top receiver role on a Chiefs team that's averaged over 29 points per game across the past three seasons.

The pass-catcher brings 4.41 40-yard dash speed, and he was a mega-producer at Western Michigan during his junior season. There's no reason he should be getting worse odds than Atlanta’s Drake London (+1000), Tennessee’s Treylon Burks (+1000), or Green Bay’s Christian Watson (+1000).

Under 10.5 wins (-105)

Sometimes the odds tell us something. Why would Under 10.5 wins only come with a -105 price when Kansas City has won 12-plus games in each of the past four seasons?

The AFC West is the toughest division in football, especially with Wilson now in Denver. The Chiefs play easily the NFL’s most difficult schedule, with pre-bye games at the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, and home to a revenge-seeking Buffalo Bills team. Losing Hill is concerning, as is a Kansas City defensive unit that ranked just 24th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, including only 23rd against the pass.

Kansas City finished 5-3 in one-score games during 2021, and Mahomes surprisingly produced career-highs in interceptions (13) and fumbles (four). The AFC West is so tough that 10-7 could be good enough for first place, with this Under still cashing.

Mahomes passing touchdowns Under 34.5 (-115)

Patrick Mahomes played a full 17 games in 2021, and he didn't exactly cruise past this number with 37 touchdown passes. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is turning 33 years old, and the team’s most explosive wideout is now in Miami. There are also three new receivers on the Chiefs, and they'll need time to acclimate to a new offense.

Head coach Andy Reid knows the importance of a more balanced attack, which explains the signing of Jones. There's also been praise for seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco coming out of training camp.

There are several reasons to bet an Under on a player prop: team regression, injury, or personnel changes. In this case, Mahomes could produce a fantastic season and still not beat this number. With uncertainty at wideout, take Mahomes to finish slightly under 34.5 touchdown passes.

Chiefs to lose in divisional round (+330)

Maintaining elite success in the NFL is difficult, and Kansas City is likely to take a slight step backward in 2022. The Chiefs started to stumble during the 2021 playoffs, and they should have lost in the divisional round at home to Buffalo. They subsequently blew a 21-3 lead at home during the AFC Championship game.

The Chiefs are highly unlikely to improve in 2022 after a myriad of personnel changes. They still possess enough talent to make the playoffs, but Kansas City is unlikely to maintain home-field advantage in a challenging AFC West.

With the Bills the Super Bowl favorite, the Baltimore Ravens fully healthy, and an improved Colts team elsewhere in the conference, I’m finishing off my fade of the Chiefs with a plus-money bet on them losing in the divisional round.