Is a 90% success rate too good to be true in sports betting? Our expert consultant, Joe Gavazzi shares a handicapping secret as valuable as a gem when it comes to placing NFL picks!
Claims of 60% winners, 70% winners, and 80% winners dot the landscape of sports service advertising for winning selections! But, how would you like to hear about a situation that has produced 90% ATS winners in NFL action, the last 30+ years with an average of 150 plays per year? If so, read on!
Every sharp sports bettor shops religiously for every ½ point he can find. By this time in your sports betting career, you have clearly learned the value of ½ a point. Sometimes, it is the difference in the outcome of your wager. Other times, you can use the ½ point in your favor by noting the way in which a sharp “out” is shading the line. In short, ½ points do make a difference and are meaningful in the world of sports betting. They do add up over the course of the season.
As most of you know, I track a myriad of statistics during any given football season. Many years ago, while doing my own research on the margin of victory in a season worth of NFL data, I discovered a very interesting side note. This is something that has held up year-after-year over the course of time. It was true prior to the advent of the 2 point, extra-point. It is true regardless of the total scoring in an NFL game that has ballooned over 46 PPG in recent seasons. Before I release this hidden gem to you, let me ask you one question: if you just had to make an NFL pick for the straight-up winner in a game, what percentage of the time would you have the winner? If you are like the average NFL bettor, you would most likely respond with a winning percentage that is upward of 70%. How would you like to make that winning percentage soar to 90% season after season?
Then, get ready for the most amazing NFL statistic that has ever influenced your NFL sports betting.
"In any NFL game, where the opening line is 6 points or less, you will win your wager 90% of the time if you're able to pick the SU winner of the game."
This statistic seems almost too good to be true! But go ahead; track it for yourself through any reliable database of your choice, or even last year’s results. You will find that there are an average of approximately 150 occurrences each season with an ATS win percentage of 90%.
So while sports handicapping services are searching for the value with ½ points, and your friends are agonizing over whether to play an underdog, only if it is getting more than 3 points, you now must simply concentrate on one factor … “in any NFL game where the opening odds is 6 points or less, if you are able to select the SU winner of the game, you will win your wager 90% of the time.”
I began this article by telling you the importance of a ½ point in sports betting. Those statements are still true. The point of this article is not to allow you to lose value in the betting line, but rather to aid you in the handicapping process and not allow the pointspread to influence your selection in competitively priced games each NFL Sunday.