Jets vs. Patriots Week 7 Picks: Can Belichick Own the Jets Again?

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: October 23, 2021 5:48 AM EDT • 4 min 8 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Head coach Bill Belichick looks on as we share our best Colts vs. Patriots prediction. — Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images via AFP.

The New England Patriots have lost four straight home games for the first time since 1993. Falling to 0-5 at home this season with a loss to the New York Jets would be a low point in Bill Belichick’s career, but the Patriots already defeated the Jets 25-6 in Week 2.

The Patriots (2-4 straight up and against the spread) are a 7-point favorite over the Jets (1-4 SU and ATS) at many of the top sportsbooks with a projected total of 42.5 points, tied for the lowest in Week 7.

The Over is 2-4 in Patriots games and 2-3 in Jets games. The Jets, who are coming off a bye week, have scored 20-plus points over their last two games after scoring 20 combined points across their first three contests. The Patriots just lost 35-29 at home in overtime to Dallas on Sunday – only the fourth time since 2000 they've dropped a home game after scoring 28-plus points.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 7 matchup between the Jets and the Patriots (odds via FanDuel).

Jets vs. Patriots Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MAWeather: Upper 50s and mostly sunny

Jets vs. Patriots Odds

The Patriots are 11-0 against the Jets since 2016, including a 3-0 record during the post-Tom Brady era. The Jets haven't won in New England since a shocking 28-21 playoff upset during the 2010 divisional round. The Patriots are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS since 2020 as at least a 7-point favorite. Since 2018, the Jets are 5-22 SU and 8-19 ATS in road games.

In NFL games since 2001 with a spread of 7 and a total of 42-to-43 points, the favorite is 25-23 ATS (6-0 since 2017) and the Over is 29-17-2. In division games of that nature, the Over is 13-6 and the favorite is 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS.

Jets vs. Patriots Picks

Jets +7 (-108)

Over 42.5 (-114)

Jets vs. Patriots Predictions

Jets +7 (-108)

The Patriots losing a fifth straight home game this season feels unfathomable. Belichick takes these contests against the rival Jets personally, and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson was just abysmal in the Week 2 matchup, throwing four interceptions over his first 10 pass attempts. The Patriots have been able to play up to the competition this month, holding late leads against the Buccaneers and Cowboys before losing those games near the end. This team is no longer good enough to win those matchups, but the Patriots are good enough to beat up the Jets again.

If I had concerns after that first matchup, it would be the Patriots using Wilson’s turnovers to score on short fields. Mac Jones produced his most dink-and-dunk game of the season, and the Patriots recorded just one scoring drive longer than 45 yards.

However, Jones played a solid game against Dallas and threw a 75-yard touchdown pass after not posting a completion longer than 32 yards over his first five games. He seems to be gaining confidence and should be safer than the erratic Wilson. Jones ranks 21st in QBR (50.2) this season while Wilson is last at 22.1.

But the Jets did produce their only successful rushing game of the season against the Patriots. They rushed for 152 yards in that contest after being stuck in the 43-to-66 yard range in their other four games. While Wilson was bad as he threw interceptions that day, the Jets logging four giveaways in their other four games is respectable. If Wilson can protect the ball better and the Jets can get the run game going again, this game shouldn’t be a three-score blowout.

In fact, five of New England’s games this season have been very close, with the last three teetering on a late field-goal attempt. A rookie quarterback threw three-plus interceptions in the only two blowouts, with Jones doing it against the Saints during a 28-13 Week 3 loss.

While I expect the Patriots to win this game, I think the Jets can at least cover, assuming New York used its bye week wisely.

Over 42.5 (-114)

Taking the Jets with the points and the Over may feel risky after last time, but NFL division rematches are notoriously unpredictable.

Since 2002, there have been 92 instances when a team won the first meeting against a division foe by 17-to-21 points. Only 35.2% of those clubs went on to win the rematch by seven-plus points, and the average decline in scoring differential was almost 15 points. There have been 104 instances since 2002 when the first division meeting ended with a total of 29-to-33 points. In 53 of those contests (51.0%), the rematch featured at least 43 points. The average total scoring increase was over 12 points per game.

But Belichick’s defense owning New York's offense has been consistent in this series. The Jets have failed to score more than 17 points in all but one of the 11 games between the two clubs since 2016. However, that one matchup was last year’s 30-27 win in New York when old nemesis Joe Flacco nearly pulled off another upset against Belichick.

While the Jets have moved on from Adam Gase and Sam Darnold, their offense remains bad under defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh and his rookie quarterback Wilson. The Jets rank dead-last in yards, points, and touchdowns per drive. But Wilson has cut his sacks down over the team's last two games while averaging a respectable 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and the Jets scored 47 points against the Titans and Falcons.

Finally, if you want the best example this season that the NFL can be completely random from week to week, look no further than Houston and Davis Mills. The rookie threw four picks in one of the worst performances this decade during a 40-0 loss to Buffalo in Week 5. But with his team an 8.5-point underdog against the Patriots the next week, Mills passed for 312 yards and three touchdowns, all while posting a 141.7 passer rating in a 25-22 loss.

The mystique in New England is gone. Not even Belichick against a rookie quarterback is a safe bet anymore. But I still see the Jets losing a 24-20 kind of game, covering the spread, and hitting the Over in the process. Also, perhaps restoring some faith that the Patriots won't descend all the way to the bottom of the division they owned for two decades.