Jets vs. Patriots NFL Picks: Bet 'Over' 47.5 in Clash of Prolific Offenses

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 24, 2015 12:36 AM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015 12:36 AM UTC

The OVER was the unanimous choice when the NFL odds opened for Sunday's game between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. Then the total fell from 49 to 48.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 23: 22-15 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 14-24 Total

All right, something funky is going on around here. Let's go straight to the Week 7 NFL odds board, where the total for Sunday's AFC East battle (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Jets and the Patriots opened at 49 points. Our consensus reports showed 100 percent support for the OVER, as you do. Then the total fell to 48 points.

Interesting. Something similar happened in last week's game between the Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts, but this time, we're looking at unanimous enthusiastic consent for the OVER. Maybe it's the vagaries of small sample size at work. Otherwise, it appears the books were more than happy to take more sharp money on the OVER, despite all that public OVER money that's surely bound to come in this weekend. There are even some 47.5-point totals out there at press time.


Carpentry for Dummies
Let's not get into a leveling war here. Given the poor results we've endured with totals this year, and given the small profit margins involved, we're heavily inclined to do what the sharps are doing – especially with the total dropping in our favor. It's not as if the Patriots (OVER 3-2) have had any trouble scoring. They lead the league at 36.6 points per game.

The Jets (UNDER 3-2) aren't quite as prolific, but they're right up there at No. 7 in scoring (25.8 points per game). That's the power of having Ryan Fitzpatrick as your starting quarterback instead of Geno Smith, but it also speaks to the improvements the Jets have made on the offensive line, plucking LG James Carpenter from the Seattle Seahawks and putting him in between LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold. No wonder New York has allowed just two sacks all season.


Islands in the Stream
All well and good, but the Jets also improved their defense by reuniting with CB Darrelle Revis, who should know a few things about the Patriots after winning the Super Bowl with them last year. Plus, DT Sheldon Richardson made his season debut last week after missing the first four games for violating the NFL's anti-ganja rules. But the OVER still got paid when the Jets beat Washington 34-20 (OVER 39.5).

We remain confident enough to put the OVER in our NFL picks this week. Yes, there's a 35-percent chance of rain over Foxborough, and yes, there's a chance the Patriots will get stranded on Revis Island – note that back-up LT Marcus Cannon injured his toe in Week 6 and had to be replaced by Cameron Fleming. But Cannon doesn't appear to be hurt too badly. Just give us the OVER already before we over-think this one, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Picks: Take OVER 47.5 at Bookmaker

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