The Indianapolis Colts look to bounce back from a disappointing overtime loss when they host the New York Jets and quarterback Mike White who had one of the best debuts in NFL history. The question is, with a week of film on him now, can he reproduce that magic against the Colts?
The Jets snapped a two-game losing streak by beating the Cincinnati Bengals as 11.5-point home dogs. They enter Thursday's road game as double-digit dogs again.
The Colts are 5-3 against the spread, while the Jets improved to 2-5 ATS after their upset win. Both teams have been on Over streaks with the Colts 4-1 to the Over in their last five and the Jets on a 4-0 run.
Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 9 matchup between the Jets and the Colts (Odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Jets vs. Colts Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday, November 4, 8:20 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Jets vs. Colts Odds Analysis
The line for this game opened at two touchdowns early in the week before being bet down to -11.5 for the Colts. It made sense to take the Jets at +14 but at +11.5, the value might be gone. If I were backing the Jets, I'd need at least a +13 to be enticed. I don't love the Colts at this number, but it's easier to lay 10.5 with them than taking the points with New York.
The total opened at 43.5 and has shot all the way up to 47 at most of the top online sportsbooks. This seems like an overreaction to the Jets' performance last week. As mentioned earlier, both teams have been playing to the Over for several weeks running, which may also be a factor here.
Jets vs. Colts Betting Picks
Colts -10.5 (-110) ?Under 46.5 (-110) ??
Jets vs. Colts Predictions
Colts -10.5 (-110) ?
This is a case of holding your nose and taking the Colts. As I mentioned earlier, anything under +13 and the value is with the Colts. I don't love playing double digits with Colts quarterback Carson Wentz, but the truth is, the Jets are not a good team. It is highly unlikely that they can reproduce their performance of a week ago. Especially not on the road with a quarterback that has one game of starting experience.
The Jets rely heavily on yards after the catch and the Colts' pass rush will put pressure on Mike White when he does drop back. We haven't seen proof that White can throw deep. His average depth of target against the Bengals was 4.2 yards. Expect the Colts to make him attempt to stretch the field.
Under 46.5 (-110) ??
While the trends point to the Over, I see an Under here. After Wentz's errors Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, I expect head coach Frank Reich, a former quarterback himself, to protect his passer. The good Wentz has a lot of upside, but when things go poorly, it can be disastrous.
I don't think the Jets take the reins off White. I expect a more conservative approach from the Jets on the road here, where they average just 11.8 points per game.
SEE ALSO: NFL Power Rankings Week 9
Picks made 11/03/2021 at 2:46 p.m. ET