New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 1st – 1:00 ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Nineteen point five points. That’s the spread in this game, 19.5… and that’s actually come down from the expected 21 points on the look ahead lines, I assume because the Jets only lost by 8 points hosting the Bills last week. It’s the highest spread of the season and I’d expect the highest we will see all year. Only 1 team has covered a spread of 20 points or more in history, in 1976, and only one game has seen a spread of 20 points or more in the last 10 years, the Broncos against the Jags in 2013.
How Do the Jets Cover?
The Jets welcomed back Sam Darnold last week as well as giving their rookie WR Denzel Mims his first taste of NFL action as he’s been injured all year up to this point. They looked better on offense for the first quarter or so, even taking the lead in the game for just the second time this season, scoring the first 10 points of the game before allowing the Bills to slowly creep back into it. But they did restrict a Bills offense which had been clicking all year to just field goals, the Bills kicker scoring 6 of 8 attempts in an 18-10 win.
They have a new era at running back with La’mical Perine getting more carries by the week, something that the coaching staff have said will happen, and old man Frank Gore still looking mildly effective in the run game as well. Perine got the first TD of his short career with a scamper to the right of the endzone, both guys had 11 carries, Gore 60 yards, Perine 40.
In truth, the Jets got lucky to get their first cover of the season last week. They’re 1-6 against the NFL spread and it shows. They’re going to get the first pick next year, and there’s a decent chance they go 0-16 if they retain Adam Gase which seems to be their plan at the moment. They average 12 points scored per game and have a point differential of -118. They’re missing covering the spread by 9.9 points per game on average. They’re terrible.
How do they cover? A Snow storm? Mahomes and Henne injuries? I doubt they’ll restrict the Chiefs to fewer than 30 points, so they’ll have to hit double figures at the very least.
How Do the Chiefs Cover?
The Chiefs haven’t been the high scoring, flowing machine that we’ve got used to since Patrick Mahomes took over but they’ve still been winning games with ease, including a stroll in the snow in Denver last week where they were able to rest Mahomes for the 4th quarter.
The fewest points they’ve scored this year was 23 against the Chargers in week 2, but they racked up 43 last week with special teams and defense chipping in with scores. Unsurprisingly it was the largest margin of victory they’ve had this year, winning by 27 points. Their other winning margins – 16,14,14,9 and 3 points. – Covering an NFL spread this large isn’t easy.
So how do they do it? They start clicking again, they get the passing game going, and keep the run game to the level it seems to have been recently. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been running very well since the team announced it was bringing in Le'Veon Bell after the Jets released him and he scored his 2nd rushing TD of the season. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Chiefs use Bell a lot in this one, he’ll be the most motivated man on the field after the Jets stalled his career.
They should be able to put up 35+, the key will be holding the Jets to one score. It could happen, the Chiefs defense is a little up and down, but even still it’s the Jets.
Who Gets the Job Done Then?
History says you can’t back the Chiefs to cover the points, but this season says you can’t back the Jets to cover a spread.
I’ve got to lean to the Chiefs, but the risk of them over-looking this game, and the fact that they don’t really need to smash the Jets is the worry.
It’s the perfect spot for a correlated parlay really, if you think the Jets cover then you take them and the unders, if you think the Chiefs cover you take them and the overs.
I think the Chiefs win, but they don’t need to put up points, the Unders has landed in 4 of 7 games for both of these teams, so I’ll have to pivot and take the UNDERS on the total.
Best Bet: Total UNDER 49 points at -108 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)