Jets vs. Bills Week 2 - Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks

Bills player Tyrod Taylor in action

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 15, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 15, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

It’s Week 2 already! That’s kind of how everyone in the business feels. Outside of last Thursday, we nailed our Week 1 player props and I am back with two more winners for the Thursday night slate.

Tyrod Taylor O/U 199.5 passing yards
Even with the status of Sammy Watkins still in question for Thursday’s game, Tyrod Taylor has some very low player prop totals from BetOnline, which is offering 75% free sign up play, for tonight’s game. At only 199½ passing yards, the over looks like a tremendous value for several reasons.

For starters, the Bills might be playing from behind in this one, even at home. The potential loss of Watkins could slow down this passing attack some, but it will likely be canceled out if the Jets can go up by a couple of scores early in the game.

The other reason is BetOnline easily has the best total for this prop. After line shopping around for Taylor’s passing yards prop, other sportsbooks have the number at 220 or 225, making 199 ½ an insane value.

One of the reason’s Taylor’s passing yards prop is so low this week was his poor performance against the Ravens. However, back at home he should be better. He was only asked to pass the ball 22 times in Week 1, but that number will easily be increased this week.

Other than potentially playing from behind, the main reason I like this prop so much is that the Jets’ defense is almost impossible to run on. We thought that last season when LeSean McCoy torched these same Jets on a short week on TNF for over 100 yards, but this time around it’s early enough in the season where I doubt that happens again.

However, the Jets only gave up only 57 yards on the ground last week to a talented Bengals rushing attack. They only averaged three yards per carry in that game, so if the Bills are having similar problems running the football, Taylor’s line will improve because if it.


Free NFL Pick: Over 199.5 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Tyrod Taylor O/U 18 pass completions
Similar to the pro above, BetOnline has some really low prop totals for Taylor in this game compared to other sportsbooks. I have seen NFL Odds for his pass completions in this game at 22, so getting 18 at -115 NFL odds for the over seems once again like a value I can not ignore.

Sure, last week wasn’t pretty, but the Jets pose a different kind of threat and it’s mostly in the running game. A.J. Green torched Darrelle Revis and if Watkins is playing that just gives Taylor another option in the passing game.

I expect tons of dump offs to McCoy in this one as well, especially if the running game itself is not working. In the end, the sportsbooks have realized the Jets are the better team here, Watkins or no Watkins.

Simply put, I expect the Jets to get a lead and to force the Bills to turn into a passing offense. Taylor and the Bills’ offense will have no choice but to open it up at home, giving great value on Taylor’s passing props in this one. Once again, take the over for your Thursday night football week 2 picks.


Free NFL Pick: Over 18 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline  
Season Player Props Record: 5-2-1

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