Will the Jets Have a Hard Knocks Time Making the NFL Playoffs?

Can Aaron Rodgers guide the New York Jets to the playoffs following their 7-10 record last season? Let's take a closer look at the odds of the Jets missing the NFL Playoffs as we examine the latest NFL odds from our top NFL betting sites. 

The New York Jets pulled off a major offseason move by acquiring Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback for 2023. Switching from Zach Wilson to Rodgers is a significant upgrade, especially when you consider their formidable defense and offensive weapons like wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall.

On paper, the Jets appear to be one of the top teams in the AFC. However, how does this promising team on paper align with their actual odds of making (or missing) the playoffs?

Let's dive deeper into the Jets' playoff odds using our best sports betting apps.

Jets' odds of missing the playoffs

New York Jets to miss the playoffs: +125 via Caesars

While many people might frame this bet as the Jets aren't good enough with Rodgers as their quarterback, that's not why I chose this bet in our NFL teams to miss the playoffs predictions. When I look at my preseason power rating for the NFL, I have the Jets ranked as the ninth-best team in the entire league. It seems strange to bet against them when seven teams from the AFC alone will make the playoffs. However, the reality is that the Jets' odds to make the playoffs are not trading at the right price.

Imagine this: let's say you believe the Jets are the best team in the AFC and are strong contenders for the Super Bowl. Let's even say their projected NFL win total is set at 12.5 games. If the Jets were -10000 to make the playoffs at our best sports betting sites, that wouldn't be a good bet. You can have the opinion that the Jets are highly ranked in the power ratings, but also believe that there's a gap in probability when it comes to their odds of making the playoffs.

The goal of sports betting is to identify and exploit these probability gaps in the odds, rather than simply approaching it as a fan and deciding which teams we believe are good or not.

Every year in the NFL, teams that aren't expected to make the playoffs end up doing so, often due to their schedule. It's quite possible the Jets will find themselves on the wrong side of this equation this season. That's why I only project them to win 8.8 games. In addition to playing in the tough AFC East, they will also face the AFC West and crossover against teams from the NFC East. With a win projection of 8.8 games, the Jets have a 56.5% chance of missing the playoffs (-129), yet Caesars has them priced as if they have a 44.4% chance of missing the playoffs.

Media attention and public perception can greatly influence the betting market. The fact that the Jets will be featured on Hard Knocks will likely attract more bets in their favor. Our best sportsbooks were already dealing with an influx of Jets money after they traded for Rodgers and had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season. Yes, the Jets are a solid football team, but their schedule is tough, and I don't think their odds of making the playoffs are accurately priced.

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