Jets-Patriots Thursday Night Parlay for Your NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, October 16, 2014 12:24 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014 12:24 PM GMT

The NFL season continues tonight as the Patriots welcome in the 1-5 New York Jets to Foxborough. The NFL odds have the Patriots as -9 ½ favorites, with a total of 44 ½. Although the Jets have played New England well recently, do you trust them with your NFL picks tonight?

Three-point game
Over their last three meetings with one another, the Jets and Patriots have played within three points of one another. Two of those games were in New York, however the Patriots also won two of the games. The only one that did not end in the Patriots’ favor was the most recent one, which was exactly one year ago this weekend. There is no denying that Rex Ryan’s defense does give Tom Brady and the offense some trouble every once in a while, but the Jets’ defense is weaker than it’s been in those three previous meetings.

A lot of people have also been referencing last year’s Thursday Night Football 13-10 win for the Patriots. Some seem to think it will turn out a lot like that game based on, well, just that. However I’m here to offer e different approach, and hopefully parlay it into an NFL picks victory.

I sincerely doubt this game will end in a three-point deficit, and if you haven’t noticed, the NFL odds don’t think it will either. Plus, while the Jets’ defense is more vulnerable, the Patriots’ defense is trending upward. They have given up an average of just over 200 passing yards per game, and their rushing defense is slowly improving after a rough start. Don’t just pay attention to the fact that in Week 2 on a Thursday these two played to a 13-10 game. The Patriots are going to score tonight, and continue putting up points. They have scored 80 points in their last two games, I doubt it slows down here against the Jets.

 

The Sharp Pick
Obviously I like the Patriots in the NFL odds tonight, but the total is a bit tougher. However the spread is not, because New England is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite between -3 ½ and -10. For the total, the Patriots are the over cashing machine of the NFL. In their last 80 games, the Patriots have cashed the over 56-24, which is a success rate of 70%. Plus, hitting their stride once the weather starts to turn is nothing new for the Patriots. The over has cashed in eight of their last ten games in the month of October, and in those games the Patriots are averaging just under 30 points per game. All they have to do is get somewhere around there against this bad Jets defense, and this game is going over too, giving us nice NFL odds value.

The Jets’ defense might have a few moments in this game, keeping it interesting through maybe the first half, but as we’ve seen this season, Thursday night games lend themselves to lopsided blowouts, with one team dominating, and over being the play. At -9 ½ and 44 ½, the conditions are once again perfect. Lay the points with the Pats and take the over, and add them both to your NFL picks tonight.

NFL Pick: 2-team parlay Patriots -9 ½ & OVER 44 ½ at 5Dimes

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