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Jets vs. Dolphins Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Will New York Play Spoiler?

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: January 8, 2023 6:14 AM EST • 2 min 53 sec read.

Sauce Gardner of the New York Jets reacts during the second quarter against the Seattle Seahawks, and we offer new U.S. bettors our exclusive Caesars promo code for Chargers vs. Jets.
Sauce Gardner of the New York Jets reacts during the second quarter against the Seattle Seahawks. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP.

In order for the Miami Dolphins to remain in the hunt for a wild-card spot, they must beat the New York Jets. However, they've lost five consecutive games and are down to their third-string quarterback. Here’s our top pick for the Jets-Dolphins matchup based on the odds.

The Dolphins (8-8) are still alive in the AFC playoff hunt despite losing five straight games. They need a Week 18 win over the Jets and a New England Patriots loss to the Buffalo Bills to secure a wild-card berth. However, Miami’s hopes hinge on the arm of third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson after backup Teddy Bridgewater broke a finger on his throwing hand.

The Jets (7-9) were officially eliminated from postseason contention in Week 17 after losing five straight and seven of nine. Still, head coach Robert Saleh and his charges would love to finish the season on a positive note and spoil the playoff hopes of their AFC East rivals.

Here is our best Jets-Dolphins NFL pick for their Week 18 matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Week 18 best bets and picks roundup.

Jets vs. Dolphins Game Info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 8, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 78 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds

Jets vs. Dolphins Odds

Jets vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

Quarterback issues for both teams are leading to some wild fluctuations in the betting line. Miami went from a 4-point favorite to a 1-point underdog once it became apparent that Thompson would start against the Jets. But then the Dolphins moved to 3.5-point favorites after Joe Flacco was announced as New York's starter.

The majority of bettors are backing Miami in a must-win situation, with 90% of the cash and 79% of the tickets supporting the Fish. More than 60% of the handle on the total is on the Over, but the total has dropped from an opener of 41.5 to 37.

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Jets vs. Dolphins Pick

Jets +3.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re not huge Joe Flacco fans, but the adjustment oddsmakers made to this point spread once Flacco was announced as New York’s starter is a huge overreaction. The Jets’ offense has been awful for weeks with Mike White and Zach Wilson at quarterback, failing to score a touchdown in the last eight quarters and being held to 17 or fewer points in four straight. Flacco can’t possibly lead to much of a dropoff.

New York’s path to winning this game — or any game in 2022-23 — is through its defense, and that unit is still playing solid football despite the team’s five-game losing skid. The Jets have allowed more than 20 points just twice in their last eight games. They enter the final week ranked second against the pass, third in total yards allowed, and fourth in points against.

Meanwhile, Miami has yet to win a game in 2022-23 when Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been its starting quarterback. Thompson struggled badly after relieving Bridgewater earlier in the campaign against the Jets, throwing for just 166 yards on 33 attempts with zero touchdowns and one interception. He won’t get much help from a Dolphins running game averaging a mediocre 95.3 yards per game on the year.

Jets vs. Dolphins Best Odds

DraftKings (+3.5, -115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+3.5+3+3+3+3.5
-115-110-105+100-120

If you’re betting on this game, make sure to shop around for the best line. Each of our top five sportsbooks is posting a different point spread or price on this contest, and there wasn’t much consensus at other books either.

New York backers only need to pay -115 juice to catch more than a field goal with the Jets at DraftKings, while PointsBet is also offering New York over the key number of 3 with -120 vig. If you like the Dolphins, lay a field goal at standard -110 odds through FanDuel.

Check out our NFL against the spread power rankings for Week 18.

Jets-Dolphins pick made 1/6/2023 at 1:36 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper is a contributing writer for Sportsbook Review, specializing in the National Football League and college football, as well as the National Hockey League and National Basketball Association. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in Toronto, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. He still holds a soft spot for the Leafs, Jays, Toronto Raptors, Denver Broncos, and Florida Gators, but Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process.