Jets to Cover Spread as NFL Odds Underdog vs. Vikings

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, December 6, 2014 2:05 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 6, 2014 2:05 PM UTC

If you want to make maximum profit with your Week 14 NFL picks, this handicapping article that focuses on the NY Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings is a must-read, as it's loaded with valuable insight. 

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-5-) 1:00 PM EST
Each week in the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, I favor a team who has fallen out of favor with the NFL betting public and the linemaker.  I look to use them against a team who has given the public a positive taste of success in their most recent outings.  Last week in this space, the selection was on the New Orleans Saints, who had just come off 3 consecutive home losses, including an MNF loss, witnessed by the world.  The result was an outright 35-32 New Orleans’ victory as 4 point underdog.  This week, I again go back to an NFL team who suffered a defeat this past Monday night, namely, the NY Jets.

Clearly, the Jets will have few backers this Sunday.  They enter on a 2-game losing streak, including the 16-13 home field loss to Miami.  That drops their record to 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS, each among the worst in the league.  The culprit has been play at the signal caller position.  Whether it is QB Vick or QB Smith at the controls, the Jets are averaging just 16 PPG on 311 YPG.  A look at the passing numbers, shows they are completing just 56% of their passes for only 5.1 YPA, easily the lowest number in the NFL passing stats.  That has led to an average of only 4.9 OFF YPP with only Oakland having a worse offensive average.   These numbers have been further fueled by the Jets’ -12 net TOs for the year, again a number exceeded by only Oakland.  These types of numbers will have few bettors buying a ticket to board the Jets this weekend. 

The Minnesota Vikings have left a positive taste in the mouths of their potential backers. The public often remembers only the previous week’s results.  That would be the Minnesota 31-13 victory against Carolina.  A closer inspection of that box score finds that Carolina outrushed the Vikings 178-92 and outgained them 348-210.  This is a Carolina team that enters today’s play on a 6-game losing streak at 3-8 SU, 4-8 ATS.  It was the 3rdgame in a row that the Vikings had been outgained.  A further inspection of the game log finds that the Vikings scored a pair of TDs, following blocked punts. 

The reality is that the Vikings’ offense is little better than the Jets’, averaging just 19 PPG on only 300 YPG on 5.2 OFF YPP.  Their rush defense allows 124/4.4.   With the Jets possessing one of the best run differentials in the entire league at 148/4.8 to 85/3.5, it appears the Jets’ ground game has the capability to control matters overland and get this projected victory.  As those who placed their NFL picks on the Jets last week will recall, NY covered the spread against Miami last week, as 6 point dog in a 16-13 loss, the Jets outrushed Miami 277-74.  Call this your PERCEPTION/REALITY upset special!

Free NFL Pick: Jets +5.5 at 5Dimes  

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